Online contents -- Leaders: 1.1 The central question -- 1.2 The central argument -- 1.3 Leaders in the study of international politics -- 1.3.1 Is war costly for leaders? -- 1.4 Conclusions -- 2. Why and when do leaders fight?: -- 2.1 How leaders are removed from office -- 2.1.1 Explaining the forcible removal from office -- 2.1.2 Fighting and gambling for survival -- 2.1.3 International conflict and regular removals -- 2.2 Competing leader-level explanations of international conflict -- 2.2.1 In- and out-group bias -- 2.2.2 Evaluation -- 2.2.3 Competence -- 2.2.4 Evaluation -- 2.3 Conclusions -- 3. International conflict and the fate of leaders: -- 3.1 Introduction -- 3.2 The manner and consequences of losing office -- 3.2.1 International conflict and the fate of leaders -- 3.3 Competing risks: regular and forcible removals -- 3.3.1 Testing the hypotheses -- 3.4 Under what conditions? -- 3.4.1 Conflict and domestic political institutions -- 3.4.2 Conflict and domestic political unrest -- 3.4.3 Conflict and economic development -- 3.4.4 Conflict and economic growth -- 3.4.5 Summary -- 3.5 Conclusions -- 4. The fate of leaders and incentives to fight: -- 4.1 Introduction -- 4.2 Measuring the risk of our theory of conflict initiation -- 4.3.1 The risk of conflict initiation -- 4.3.2 Conflict outcomes -- 4.3.3 An overview of the findings from the statistical model: Regime type -- State of the economy -- International political context -- 4.4 Conclusions -- 5. Case studies: Central America 1840-1918: -- 5.1 Introduction -- 5.2 Central America -- 5.2.1 Empirical strategy -- 5.2.2 Ideology and international conflict in Central America -- 5.3 Birth pangs of independence 1840-48 -- 5.3.1 The return of Morazán -- 5.3.2 Malespín and the Liberal exiles in Nicaragua -- 5.3.3 The fall of Carrera -- 5.4 Conservatism ascendant 1849-71 -- 5.4.1 The return of Carrera -- 5.4.2 Cabañas comes to power -- 5.4.3 The National War -- 5.4.4 Gerardo Barrios -- 5.5 The return of Liberalism 1872-1918 -- 5.5.1 The rise and demise of Justo Rufino Barrios -- 5.5.2 The era of Zelaya and Estrada Cabrera -- 5.6 A problem (largely) solved: the Washington Treaty -- 5.7 Conclusions -- 6. Conclusions: -- 6.1 Summary -- 6.2 Implications -- 6.3 Conclusions -- Appendix A: data and measurement -- A.1 Archigos: a data set of leaders -- A.2 Dependent variables -- A.3 Explanatory variables
Summary
Highlights the role political leadership plays in the choice between war and peace
