| Description |
1 online resource (272 pages) : illustrations |
| Series |
Clarendon studies in criminology |
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Clarendon studies in criminology.
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| Contents |
880-01 Criminal career research, mathematical models, and testing quantitative predictions from theories -- An analysis of the offenders index -- The theory and a simple model -- Criminal careers of serious, less serious, and trivial offenders -- Is age the primary influence on offending? -- Characteristics of individuals -- Applications for managing the criminal justice system -- Criminal policy implications -- Summary and conclusions -- Appendix: mathematical notes |
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880-01/(S 9. Summary and ConclusionsSummary; The Origin of the Offender Categories; Criminality; Recidivism; Conviction Rate λ; The Effects of Formal Warnings and Cautions; The Criminal Career Debate; Conclusions; Appendix: Mathematical Notes; Introduction; Constant Probability Systems; Allocation of Offenders to the Risk/Rate Categories; An Alternative Modelling Approach; Incapacitation; Steady State Solutions; Estimating the Active Offender Population Size; Maximum Likelihood Estimation of the Recidivism Parameters; Bibliography; Index; A; B; C; D; F; G; I; L; M; N; O; P; R; S; T; V |
| Summary |
Explaining Criminal Careers presents a simple but influential theory of crime, conviction and reconviction. The assumptions of the theory are derived directly from a detailed analysis of cohort samples extracted from the Home Office Offenders Index - a unique database which contains records of all criminal (standard list) convictions in England and Wales since 1963. In particular, the theory explains the well-known Age/Crime curve. Based on the idea that there are only three types of offenders, who commit crimes at either high or low (constant) rates and have either a high or low (constant) risk of reoffending, this simple theory makes exact quantitative predictions about criminal careers and age-crime curves. Purely from the birth-rate over the second part of the 20th century, the theory accurately predicts (to within 2%) the prison population contingent on a given sentencing policy. The theory also suggests that increasing the probability of conviction after each offence is the most effective way of reducing crime, although there is a role for treatment programmes for some offenders. The authors indicate that crime is influenced by the operation of the Criminal Justice System and that offenders do not 'grow out' of crime as commonly supposed; they are persuaded to stop or decide to stop after (repeated) convictions, with a certain fraction of offenders desisting after each conviction. Simply imprisoning offenders will not reduce crime either by individual deterrence or by incapacitation. With comprehensive explanations of the formulae used and complete mathematical appendices allowing for individual interpretations and further development of the theory, Explaining Criminal Careers represents an innovative and meticulous investigation into criminal activity and the influences behind it. With clear policy implications and a wealth of original and significant discussions, this book marks a ground-breaking chapter in the criminological debate surrounding criminal careers |
| Analysis |
Age-crime curve |
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Conviction |
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Criminal Careers |
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Offenders Index |
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OI |
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Prison population |
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Recidivism |
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Reconviction |
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Theory of crime |
| Bibliography |
Includes bibliographical references and index |
| Notes |
English |
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Print version record |
| Subject |
Criminals -- Great Britain.
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Crime -- Great Britain
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Criminal justice, Administration of -- Great Britain
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Causes and prevention of crime.
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Crime and criminology.
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Mathematics and science.
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Mathematics.
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Offenders.
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Probability and statistics.
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Probation services.
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Rehabilitation of offenders.
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Social services and welfare, criminology.
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Society and social sciences Society and social sciences.
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SOCIAL SCIENCE -- Criminology.
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Crime
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Criminal justice, Administration of
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Criminals
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Great Britain
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| Form |
Electronic book
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| Author |
Grove, Peter G., author.
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Farrington, David P., author.
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| LC no. |
2012940891 |
| ISBN |
9781283658232 |
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1283658232 |
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9780191645242 |
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0191645249 |
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9780191781568 |
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0191781568 |
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6613970735 |
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9786613970732 |
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