Table of Contents |
1. | Introduction | 1 |
1.1. | Definitions of Family and Household | 2 |
1.2. | Why Project Household and Living Arrangements? | 2 |
1.2.1. | Household Projections, Socioeconomic Planning and Policy Analysis | 2 |
1.2.2. | Household Projections and Consumption Market Analysis | 4 |
1.2.3. | A Tool for Development of Demographic Theories | 4 |
1.3. | Why Do Household Projections Need to Use Demographic Rates as Input? | 6 |
1.3.1. | Demographic Change and Family Household Dynamics | 6 |
1.3.2. | Demographic Change, Elderly Living Arrangements, and Care Needs and Costs | 7 |
1.3.3. | Demographic Changes and Living Arrangements of Children | 8 |
1.3.4. | Demographic Changes and Family Life Course of Adults, Especially Single Mothers | 9 |
1.4. | A Brief Review of Methodological Approaches for Household Projections and Simulations | 10 |
1.4.1. | Headship Rate | 10 |
1.4.2. | Micro-Simulation Models | 11 |
1.4.3. | Macro-Simulation Models | 12 |
1.5. | Concluding Remarks | 15 |
pt. I | Methodology, Data, and Assessments | |
2. | ProFamy: The Extended Cohort-Component Method for Household and Living Arrangement Projections | 19 |
2.1. | Units of Analysis and Demographic Status Identification | 19 |
2.2. | Core Ideas of the ProFamy Extended Cohort-Component Model | 21 |
2.2.1. | Core Idea 1: A Multi-State Accounting Model | 22 |
2.2.2. | Core Idea 2: Distinguishing Continuously Occurring from Periodic Demographic Accounting Processes | 26 |
2.2.3. | Core Idea 3: A Judicious Use of Independence Assumptions | 27 |
2.2.4. | Core Idea 4: Employing the National Age-Sex-Specific Model Standard Schedules and the Summary Parameters at the Sub-National Level | 28 |
2.3. | The Demographic Accounting Equations | 31 |
2.4. | Projecting Households and All Individuals of the Entire Population Simultaneously | 36 |
2.5. | Consistencies in the Two-Sex and Multi-Generation Model | 37 |
2.5.1. | Consistency Between Males and Females | 37 |
2.5.2. | Consistency Between Children and Parents | 38 |
2.5.3. | Consistency Between Births Calculated for the Female and Male Populations | 39 |
2.5.4. | Consistency Between Females' and Males' Status of Co-residence with Children Before and After Divorce (or Dissolution of Cohabitation) or Remarriage | 39 |
Appendix 1 | Procedure to Correct the Inaccurate Accounting of Household Size Distribution Due to the Lack of Capacity to Identify the Reference Person's Co-residence Status with Other Relatives or Non-relatives | 41 |
Appendix 2 | A procedure to Meet the Requirement that Other Relatives and Non-relatives Cannot Be Reference Persons of the Household | 42 |
Appendix 3 | Parity Transition Probabilities in the 1st and 2nd Half of the Year | 43 |
Appendix 4 | Procedures for Estimating Transition Probabilities of Status of Co-residence with Parents | 44 |
Appendix 5 | Procedures for Estimation of Probabilities of Change in Number of Children Living Together | 47 |
3. | Data Needs and Estimation Procedures | 49 |
3.1. | Data Needed | 49 |
3.2. | Estimation and Projections of Age-Sex-Specific Demographic Rates | 53 |
3.3. | Pooling Data from Multiple Surveys to Estimate the Age-Sex-Status-Specific Standard Schedules: Rationale and Justification | 54 |
3.4. | Estimation of Demographic Summary Measures | 55 |
Appendix 1 | Procedures to Ensure the Accuracy of the Base Population for the Projections | 57 |
Appendix 2 | Standardized General Rates of Marriage/Union Formation and Dissolution | 59 |
Appendix 3 | Procedure to Estimate Proportions of Those Aged 40-44 in Year t Who Do Not Live with Parents and Proportions of Elders Aged x in Year t Living with Adult Children), While Taking into Account the Effects of Large Changes in Fertility | 61 |
Appendix 4 | Procedure to Calculate Sex-Age-Specific Rates While Ensuring the Consistency of the Two-Sex Constraints and the Projected Standardized General Rates of Marriage/Union Formation and Dissolution | 64 |
Appendix 5 | Procedure to Estimate General Rates of Marriage/Union Formation and Dissolution at the Starting Year of the Projections | 70 |
4. | Empirical Assessments and a Comparison with the Headship Rate Method | 73 |
4.1. | Empirical Assessments: Comparisons of Projections and Census Enumerations at the National and Sub-National Levels | 73 |
4.2. | A Comparison Between the Classic Headship Rate Method and the ProFamy Extended Cohort-Component Approach | 80 |
4.2.1. | Conceptual Issues | 80 |
4.2.2. | Linkage with Demographic Rates | 80 |
4.2.3. | Cross-Sectional Extrapolations Versus Cohort-by-Cohort Projections | 81 |
4.2.4. | Household Members Other than Heads | 81 |
4.2.5. | Information Produced and Adequacy for Planning | 81 |
4.2.6. | Methodology | 83 |
4.2.7. | Data Requirements, Time and Resource Costs | 84 |
4.3. | A Comparison of Housing Demand Forecast Errors Between the Headship Rate Method and the ProFamy Extended Cohort-Component Approach | 86 |
Appendix 1 | Procedures to Project Housing Demands Based on Household Projections Employing the Headship Rate Method or the ProFamy Approach | 88 |
5. | Extension of ProFamy Model to Project Elderly Disability Status and Home-Based Care Costs, with an Illustrative Application | 91 |
5.1. | Introduction | 91 |
5.2. | The Further Extended ProFamy Method Including Projections of Elderly Disability and Home-Based Care Costs | 93 |
5.3. | An Illustrative Application to China | 95 |
5.3.1. | Data Sources and Estimates | 95 |
5.3.2. | Scenario Design and Parameters | 97 |
5.3.3. | Results | 100 |
5.4. | Concluding Remarks | 107 |
6. | Household and Living Arrangement Projections at the Small Area Level | 109 |
6.1. | Basic Concepts to Apply the ProFamy Approach in Combination with Ratio Methods for Small Areas | 109 |
6.2. | The Constant-Share and Shift-Share Ratio Methods | 111 |
6.3. | Empirical Assessment and Illustrative Applications | 112 |
7. | A Simple Method for Projecting Pension Deficit Rates and an Illustrative Application | 115 |
7.1. | Introduction | 115 |
7.2. | The Method | 116 |
7.3. | Illustrative Application to China | 118 |
7.3.1. | The Pension System in China | 118 |
7.3.2. | Assumptions of Parameters for Different Scenarios | 120 |
7.3.3. | The Results | 125 |
7.4. | Discussion | 127 |
7.5. | Concluding Remarks | 129 |
Appendix 1 | Derivation of the Simple Method | 130 |
pt. II | Applications in the United States | |
8. | U.S. Family Household Momentum and Dynamics: Projections at the National Level | 135 |
8.1. | Data and Estimates | 135 |
8.2. | Medium Projections | 138 |
8.3. | Family Household Momentum | 140 |
8.4. | Low and High Bounds of Household and Living Arrangement Projections | 141 |
8.5. | Racial Differentials in Dynamics of Households and Living Arrangements | 143 |
8.6. | Concluding Remarks | 145 |
Appendix 1 | A Procedure to Adjust the o/e Rates of Marital/Cohabiting Union Status Transitions Based on the NSFH and NSFG Data to Be Consistent with the o/e Rates of Marital Status Transitions Based on the CPS, SIPP, NSFH, and NSFG Data | 146 |
Appendix 2 | Comparisons of Summary Measures of Marital Status Life Tables (Excluding Cohabitation) Between Our Estimates Based on the Pooled Survey Data and Schoen's Estimates Based on Vital Statistics, All Races Combined | 148 |
Appendix 3 | Major Parameters of Medium Forecasts, Smaller and Larger Family Household Scenarios | 149 |
9. | Household and Living Arrangement Projections for the 50 States, Washington DC, and Relatively Large Counties in the U.S. | 151 |
9.1. | Data and Parameter Assumptions | 151 |
9.2. | Low and High Bounds of Household and Living Arrangement Projections | 152 |
9.3. | Summary of Projection Outcomes | 154 |
9.4. | Discussion and Concluding Remarks | 156 |
Appendix 1 | Information About Population Sizes of the 50 States, DC, the Six Counties of SC, and the M-S Area | 157 |
Appendix 2 | Output of Household and Living Arrangement Projections, U.S. Sub-National Level | 158 |
10. | Effects of Changes in Household Structure and Living Arrangements on Future Home-Based Care Costs for Disabled Elders in the United States | 167 |
10.1. | Introduction | 167 |
10.2. | Data Sources and Parameter Estimates and Assumptions | 170 |
10.2.1. | Demographic Age-Sex-Specific Standard Schedules and Summary Parameters | 170 |
10.2.2. | Estimates of Disability and Home-Based Care Cost Parameters | 171 |
10.3. | Results | 172 |
10.3.1. | A Substantial Increase in Number of Disabled Elders and Remarkable Acceleration After 2020, Especially for the Oldest-Old | 173 |
10.3.2. | The Increase in Home-Based Care Costs for Disabled Elders Will Dramatically Accelerate After 2020, Especially for the Disabled Oldest-Old | 178 |
10.3.3. | Gender Differentials | 179 |
10.3.4. | Racial Differentials | 180 |
10.3.5. | High and Low Bounds of Home-Based Care Costs | 182 |
10.4. | Concluding Remarks | 182 |
Appendix 1 | The Estimated and Assumed Demographic Summary Measures in the Baseline and Future Years for the United States | 185 |
Appendix 2 | A Two-Step Procedure to Estimate Age-Sex-Race-Living Arrangement-Disability Status-Specific Care Hours and Care Costs Per Elder | 186 |
Appendix 3 | Age-Sex-Race-Living Arrangement-Specific Disability Rates, Home-Based Care Hours, and Care Costs ($), Based on Data from NLTCS 1999 Wave, the United States | 187 |
11. | Projections of Household Vehicle Consumption in the United States | 189 |
11.1. | Introduction | 189 |
11.2. | Data Sources and Model Specification to Account for Regional, Income, and Racial Differentials | 190 |
11.3. | Estimation of Household Vehicle Ownership Rates by Household Characteristics, Race, and Region | 191 |
11.4. | Results of Household Vehicle Consumption Forecasts | 194 |
11.4.1. | Household Projection Outcome | 194 |
11.4.2. | Validation Tests: A Comparison Between Our Projected Numbers and Official Statistics on Number of Home-Use Passenger Cars, 2000--2009 | 196 |
11.4.3. | A General Description of the Forecasts | 197 |
11.4.4. | Forecast by Age and Race of Householders | 197 |
11.4.5. | Forecast by Type, Size and Income of Households | 200 |
11.4.6. | Forecast by Region | 201 |
11.5. | Conclusion and Discussion | 203 |
Appendix 1 | The Four Regions Defined By the US Census Bureau | 205 |
Appendix 2 | Consistency Examination Across the Four Regions | 205 |
Appendix 3 | Consistency Examination for Percentile Distribution of Income Categories | 205 |
pt. III | Applications in China | |
12. | Household and Living Arrangement Projections in China at the National Level | 211 |
12.1. | Introduction | 211 |
12.2. | Data and Estimates | 212 |
12.3. | Profile of Future Trends | 214 |
12.3.1. | Rapid Population Aging | 214 |
12.3.2. | Projection of Family Household Structure and Size | 217 |
12.3.3. | Proportion of Elderly Who Live in Empty-Nest Households | 219 |
12.3.4. | Dependency Ratios | 220 |
12.4. | Summary and Concluding Remarks | 222 |
13. | Dynamics of Households and Living Arrangements in the Eastern, Middle, and Western Regions of China | 225 |
13.1. | Introduction | 225 |
13.2. | Method, Data Sources, and Parameter Assumptions | 225 |
13.3. | Results of the Comparative Regional Projections | 228 |
13.3.1. | The Middle Region Will Face the Most Serious Challenges of Population and Household Aging | 228 |
13.3.2. | Population and Household Aging Will Be More than 1.5 Times or Twice as Severe in Rural Areas Compared to Urban Areas in the Middle and Eastern Regions | 232 |
13.4. | Discussion and Policy Considerations | 234 |
Appendix 1 | Parameters of Population and Household Projection at the Regional Level | 236 |
14. | Application of Household and Living Arrangement Projections to Policy Analysis in China | 237 |
14.1. | Introduction | 237 |
14.2. | A Brief Review of Related Policy Research and Debates on Fertility Policy Transition Options in China | 238 |
14.3. | The Data Sources, Policy Scenario Designs, and Parameter Assumptions | 240 |
14.4. | Comparative Analysis Under Different Fertility Policy Scenarios | 243 |
14.4.1. | Population Growth | 243 |
14.4.2. | Percentage of Elderly and Elderly Living in Empty-Nest Households | 244 |
14.4.3. | Labor Force and the Elderly Dependency Ratio | 245 |
14.4.4. | Resources of Care Providers for Disabled Elderly | 248 |
14.4.5. | Sex Ratio at Birth and Marriage Squeeze | 249 |
14.4.6. | Socioeconomic Costs and Human Capital | 251 |
14.4.7. | The "Two-Child Solely for Only-Child Couples" Is a Very Poor Policy Option | 253 |
14.5. | Challenges and Opportunities Associated with Retirement Age and Rural Old Age Insurance Program | 254 |
14.6. | Policy Recommendations | 256 |
14.6.1. | Transfer to the Two-Child Policy with Adequate Spacing Fertility Policy as Soon as Possible | 256 |
14.6.2. | Gradually Increase Age at Retirement | 258 |
14.6.3. | Further Develop the Rural Old Age Insurance Program | 259 |
14.7. | Concluding Remarks | 259 |
15. | Household Housing Demand Projections for Hebei Province of China | 263 |
15.1. | Introduction | 263 |
15.2. | Method, Data, and Input Parameter Estimates | 264 |
15.2.1. | The Method | 264 |
15.2.2. | Data Sources, Estimates, and Parameter Assumptions | 265 |
15.3. | Results and Discussion | 268 |
15.3.1. | A Brief Outline of the Current Household Housing Situation | 268 |
15.3.2. | General Trends of Household and Population Dynamics | 269 |
15.3.3. | General Trends of Owned and Rental Housing Demands | 270 |
15.3.4. | Housing Demand By Rural and Urban Residence | 274 |
15.3.5. | The Aging of Housing Demand | 275 |
15.3.6. | Housing Demand By Household Type | 275 |
15.4. | Summary and Relevant Policy Considerations | 276 |
15.5. | Concluding Remarks | 277 |
pt. IV | ProFamy: A Software for Household and Consumption Forecasting | |
16. | Setting Up the Projection Model | 283 |
16.1. | Main menu | 283 |
16.2. | Create, Open and Save ProFamy Files | 284 |
16.3. | Specify Models and Data Types | 286 |
17. | Preparing Input Data, Computing, and Managing Output | 297 |
17.1. | How to Prepare Input Data of the Base Population | 297 |
17.1.1. | Format and Variable Definitions for the Input File of Base Population | 298 |
17.1.2. | How to Run BasePop | 302 |
17.2. | How to Prepare the Input Data for Standard Schedules | 304 |
17.2.1. | Input Data Sheets | 305 |
17.2.2. | Standard Schedules of Mortality | 307 |
17.2.3. | Standard Schedules of Marriage/Union Formation and Dissolution | 307 |
17.2.4. | Standard Schedules of Fertility | 308 |
17.2.5. | Standard Schedules of Leaving the Parental Home | 311 |
17.2.6. | Standard Schedules of Migration | 312 |
17.3. | How to Prepare the Summary Measures | 314 |
17.4. | How to Prepare Input Data for the Total Population (100 % Tabulation) By Age, Sex and Marital Status | 316 |
17.5. | Input Data for the Total Institutional Population (100 % Tabulation) By Age and Sex | 317 |
17.6. | How to Run "Computation of the Projection" | 318 |
17.7. | How to View and Manage the Results | 319 |
18. | Epilogue: Summary and Future Perspectives | 323 |
18.1. | Methodological Core Ideas and Empirical Assessments of the ProFamy Extended Cohort-Component Approach and Comparisons with the Classic Headship Rate Method | 323 |
18.2. | Extensions of the ProFamy Model to Project Elderly Disability Status, Home-Based Care Costs, and Pension Deficit Rates, with Illustrative Applications | 325 |
18.3. | Household and Living Arrangement Projections at the Small Area Level | 326 |
18.4. | Applications to the United States | 326 |
18.5. | Applications to China | 328 |
18.6. | User's Guide of the ProFamy Software for Household and Consumption Forecasting | 329 |
18.7. | Limitations and Future Research Perspectives | 330 |
| References | 333 |
| Index | 351 |