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Author Aiyar, Shekhar, author

Title The demographic dividend : evidence from the Indian states / Shekhar Aiyar and Ashoka Mody
Published [Washington, D.C.] : International Monetary Fund, [2011]
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Description 1 online resource (32 pages) : color illustrations
Series IMF working paper ; WP/11/38
IMF working paper ; WP/11/38
Contents Cover Page; Title Page; Copyright Page; Contents; I. Introduction; 1. The Demographic Transition; 2. Comparative Evolution of Population Pyramids; II. Data and Summary Statistics; 1. Summary Statistics; 3. Income Growth and the Working Age Ratio in Selected States; 2. Demographic Evolution and Income Growth in Selected States; 3. Growth Correlates; III. Estimation; IV. The Demographic Dividend; 4. The Impact of Demography on Per Capita Growth Controlling for Migration; 5. The Impact of Demography on Per Capita Growth Instrumental Variables; V. Allowing for Other Growth Influences
6. Introducing Core Control Variables7. Controlling for Core and Policy Variables (Part 1); 8. Controlling for Core and Policy Variables (Part 2); VI. Extra Growth from Demographic Change: Some Simulations; A. The Dividend thus Far; 9. India's Past Age Distribution and Demographic Dividend; B. The State-Wide Distribution of the Dividend; 10. Demographic Dividend: Selected States; C. What May the Future Hold?; 11. Demographic Projections for India; 12. India's Coming Demographic Dividend by Decade; VII. Conclusion; References; Footnotes
Summary Large cohorts of young adults are poised to add to the working-age population of developing economies. Despite much interest in the consequent growth dividend, the size and circumstances of the potential gains remain under-explored. This study makes progress by focusing on India, which will be the largest individual contributor to the global demographic transition ahead. It exploits the variation in the age structure of the population across Indian states to identify the demographic dividend. The main finding is that there is a large and significant growth impact of both the level and growth rate of the working age ratio. This result is robust to a variety of empirical strategies, including a correction for interstate migration. The results imply that a substantial fraction of the growth acceleration that India has experienced since the 1980s - sometimes ascribed exclusively to economic reforms - is attributable to changes in the countrys age structure. Moreover, the demographic dividend could add about 2 percentage points per annum to Indias per capita GDP growth over the next two decades. With the future expansion of the working age ratio concentrated in some of Indias poorest states, income convergence may well speed up, a theme likely to recur on the global stage
Bibliography Includes bibliographical references
Subject Age distribution (Demography) -- India -- Econometric models.
Economic development -- India -- Econometric models.
Labor supply -- India -- Econometric models.
Form Electronic book
Author Mody, Ashoka, author
International Monetary Fund. European Department, issuing body
ISBN 1283555522