| Description |
xxxi, 277 pages : illustrations ; 23cm |
| Contents |
Machine derived contents note: Contents -- Acknowledgements for the 2nd Edition 1 -- Preface to the 2nd Edition 1 -- Prologue 1 -- Mosques in the Clouds 1 -- Part I: Solon'S Warning - Skewness, Asymmetry, -- Induction 9 -- One: If You're So Rich Why Aren't You So Smart?13 -- Nero Tulip 13 -- Hit by Lightning 13 -- Temporary Sanity 14 -- Modus Operandi 16 -- No Work Ethics 18 -- There Are Always Secrets 19 -- John the High-Yield Trader 20 -- An Overpaid Hick 21 -- The Red-Hot Summer 23 -- Serotonin and Randomness 24 -- Your Dentist Is Rich, Very Rich 26 -- Two: A Bizarre Accounting Method28 -- Alternative History 28 -- Russian Roulette 29 -- Possible Worlds 30 -- An Even More Vicious Roulette 31 -- Smooth Peer Relations 32 -- Salvation Via Aeroflot 34 -- Solon Visits Regine's Night Club 36 -- George Will Is No Solon: On Counterintuitive Truths 38 -- Humiliated in Debates 40 -- A Different Kind of Earthquake 41 -- Proverbs Galore 43 -- Risk Managers 44 -- Epiphenomena 45 -- Three: A Mathematical Meditation on History46 -- Europlayboy Mathematics 46 -- The Tools 47 -- Monte Carlo Mathematics 49 -- Fun In My Attic 51 -- Making History 51 -- Zorglubs Crowding the Attic 52 -- Denigration of History 53 -- The Stove Is Hot 54 -- Skills in Predicting Past History 56 -- My Solon 58 -- Distilled Thinking on Your PalmPilot 59 -- Breaking News 59 -- Shiller Redux 62 -- Gerontocracy 63 -- Philostratus in Monte Carlo: On the Difference Between -- Noise and Information 64 -- Four: Randomness, Nonsense, and the Scientific Intellectual69 -- Randomness and the Verb 69 -- Reverse Turing Test 71 -- The Father of All Pseudothinkers 73 -- Monte Carlo Poetry 73 -- Five: Survival of the Least Fit - Can Evolution Be Fooled byRandomness? 77 -- Carlos the Emerging Markets Wizard 77 -- The Good Years 80 -- Averaging Down 81 -- Lines in the Sand 81 -- John the High-Yield Trader 83 -- The Quant Who Knew Computers and Equations 84 -- The Traits They Shared 87 -- A Review of Market Fools of Randomness Constants 88 -- Nav̐e Evolutionary Theories 90 -- Can Evolution be Fooled by Randomness? 92 -- Six: Skewness and Asymmetry93 -- The Median Is Not the Message 93 -- Bull and Bear Zoology 95 -- An Arrogant 29-Year-Old Son 97 -- Rare Events 98 -- Symmetry and Science 99 -- Almost Everybody is Above Average 100 -- The Rare Event Fallacy 103 -- The Mother of All Deceptions 103 -- Why Don't Statisticians Detect Rare Events? 106 -- A Mischievous Child Replaces the Black Balls 107 -- Seven: The Problem of Induction109 -- From Bacon to Hume 109 -- Cygnus Atratus 110 -- Niederhoffer, Victorian Gentleman 110 -- Sir Karl's Promoting Agent 113 -- Location, Location 116 -- Popper's Answer 117 -- Open Society 119 -- Nobody Is Perfect 119 -- Induction and Memory 120 -- Pascal's Wager 121 -- Thank You Solon 121 -- Part Ii: Monkeys On Typewriters - Survivorship -- And Other Survivorship And -- Other Biases 123 -- It Depends On the Number of Monkeys 126 -- Vicious Real Life 127 -- This Section 127 -- Eight: Too Many Millionaires Next Door129 -- How To Stop the Sting of Failure 129 -- Somewhat Happy 129 -- Too Much Work 130 -- You're a Failure 131 -- Double Survivorship Biases 133 -- More Experts 133 -- Visibility Winners 134 -- It's a Bull Market 134 -- A Guru's Opinion 136 -- Nine: It Is Easier To Buy and Sell Than Fry an Egg138 -- Fooled by Numbers 140 -- Placebo Investors 140 -- Nobody Has To Be Competent 142 -- Regression to the Mean 143 -- Ergodicity 144 -- Life Is Coincidental 145 -- The Mysterious Letter 145 -- An Interrupted Tennis Game 146 -- Reverse Survivors 146 -- The Birthday Paradox 147 -- It's a Small World! 147 -- Data Mining, Statistics, and Charlatanism 148 -- The Best Book I Have Ever Read! 149 -- The Backtester 149 -- A More Unsettling Extension 151 -- The Earnings Season: Fooled by the Results 151 -- Comparative Luck 153 -- Cancer Cures 153 -- Professor Pearson Goes to Monte Carlo (Literally): -- The Dog That Did Not Bark: On Biases in Scientific -- Randomness Does Not Look Random! 155 -- Knowledge 156 -- I Have No Conclusion 157 -- Ten: Loser Takes All - On the Nonlinearities of Life159 -- The Sandpile Effect 159 -- Enter Randomness 161 -- Learning to Type 161 -- Mathematics Inside and Outside the Real World 163 -- The Science of Networks 164 -- Our brain 165 -- Buridan's Donkey or the Good Side of Randomness 166 -- When It Rains, It Pours 166 -- Eleven: Randomness and Our Brain: We Are -- Probability Blind 168 -- Paris or the Bahamas? 168 -- Some Architectural Considerations 169 -- Beware the Philosopher Bureaucrat 171 -- Satisficing 172 -- Flawed, not Just Imperfect 173 -- Kahneman and Tversky 173 -- Where is Napoleon When We Need Him? 175 -- "I'm As Good As My Last Trade" and Other Heuristics 176 -- Degree in a Fortune Cookie 179 -- Two Systems of Reasoning 181 -- Why We Don't Marry the First Date 181 -- Our Natural Habitat 182 -- Fast and Frugal 184 -- Neurobiologists Too 184 -- Kafka in a Courtroom 187 -- Examples of Biases in Understanding Probability 190 -- We Are Option Blind 191 -- Probabilities and the Media (More Journalists) 193 -- CNBC at Lunch Time 194 -- You Should Be Dead by Now 195 -- The Bloomberg Explanations 195 -- Filtering Methods 198 -- We Do Not Understand Confidence Levels 199 -- An Admission 200 -- Part Iii: Wax In My Ears - Living With -- Randomitis 201 -- I Am Not So Intelligent 204 -- Wittgenstein's Ruler 205 -- The Odyssean Mute Command 206 -- Twelve: Gamblers' Ticks and Pigeons in a Box209 -- Taxi-Cab English and Causality 209 -- The Skinner Pigeon Experiment 212 -- Philostratus Redux 213 -- Thirteen: Carneades Comes to Rome: On Probability -- and Skepticism 216 -- Carneades Comes to Rome 216 -- Probability the Child of Skepticism 218 -- Monsieur de Norpois's Opinions 219 -- Path Dependence of Beliefs 221 -- Computing Instead of Thinking 222 -- From Funeral to Funeral 225 -- Fourteen: Bacchus Abandons Antony226 -- Notes on Jackie O.'s Funeral 227 -- Randomness and Personal Elegance 229 -- Epilogue: Solon Told You So231 -- Beware the London Traffic Jams 231 -- A Trip to the Library: Notes and Reading Recommendations 232 -- References 251 |
| Notes |
Includes index |
| Bibliography |
Bibliography: [251]-264 |
| Subject |
Financial futures -- Mathematical models.
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Fortune.
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Chance.
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Investments.
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Random variables.
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| LC no. |
2004004213 |
| ISBN |
1587991845 paperback |
|
158799190X |
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