| Description |
1 online resource (35 pages) : color illustrations |
| Series |
IMF working paper ; WP/16/170 |
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IMF working paper ; WP/16/170.
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| Contents |
Cover; Contents; I. Introduction; II. China's Transition; III. ASEAN-5 Exposures to China; A. Trade channel; B. Commodity price channel; C. Financial channel; IV. Potential Impact of China's Slowdown and Rebalancing on the ASEAN-5; A. First Round Effects through Trade; B. Empirical Analysis; C. Model-Based Analysis; V. Recent Developments in ASEAN-5; A. Recent Merchandise Export Developments in ASEAN-5; B. Recent Financial Market Developments; VI. Opportunities: Goods Trade Rebalancing and Tourism; VII. Conclusion; References; Figures; 1. China: Real GDP Growth and Nominal GDP Composition |
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2. China: Trade Performance and Commodity Prices3. Global Financial Volatility and Exchange Rates; 4. ASEAN-5: Composition of Merchandise Exports by Trading Partner, 2014; 5. ASEAN-5: Trade in Value-Added with China; 6. ASEAN-5: Trade in Value-Added Among ASEAN-5; 7. China: Import of Services; 8. ASEAN-5: Travel Receipts and Chinese Tourists; 9. ASEAN-5: Net Commodity Exports and Terms of Trade; 10. ASEAN-5: Direct Financial Exposure to China; 11. ASEAN-5: Portfolio Fund Flows and Global Financial Volatility (VIX); 12. Direct Impact of a 1.25 Percent Reduction in China's Domestic Demand |
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13. Average GDP Responses in the First Year Following a Negative GDP Shock in China14. Average GDP Responses to an Increase in Global Financial Market Volatility over the First Year; 15. Implications of a Negative China GDP Shock for the Global Economy; 16. China's Private Demand Shock: Impact on Trading Partners' GDP over the First Year; 17. China's Supply Shock: Impact on Trading Partners' GDP over the First Year; 18. China's Policy Shock: Impact on Trading Partners' GDP over the First Year; 19. ASEAN-5: Contributions to Export Growth by Trading Partners |
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20. ASEAN-5: Contribution to Export Growth by Broad Economic Category21. ASEAN-5: Export Volumes and Prices; 22. ASEAN-5: Domestic Financial Conditions; 23. ASEAN-5: Export Value Growth Contribution by Broad Groups; 24. ASEAN-5: Export Value Growth Contribution by Broad Groups; 25. ASEAN-5: Growth Differential between a Country's Exports to China and China's Imports; 26. ASEAN-5: Tourist Arrival and Travel Receipts; Appendix; I Impact of a Shock in China to Private Demand (Scenario 1), Tradable Supply (Scenario 2), and Government's Budget Composition (Scenario 3) |
| Summary |
After many years of rapid expansion, China's growth is slowing to more sustainable levels and is rebalancing, with consumption becoming the main growth driver. This transition is likely to have negative effects on its trading partners in the near term. This paper studies the potential spillovers to the ASEAN-5 economies through trade, commodity prices, and financial markets. It finds that countries with closer trade linkages with China (Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand) and net commodity exporters (Indonesia and Malaysia) would suffer the largest impact, with growth falling between 0.2 and 0.5 percentage points in response to a decline in China's growth by 1 percentage point depending on the model used and the nature of the shock. The impact could be larger if China's slowdown and rebalancing coincides with bouts of global financial volatility. There are also opportunities from China's rebalancing, both in merchandise and services trade, and there is preliminary evidence that some ASEAN-5 economies are already benefiting from these trends |
| Notes |
"August 2016." |
|
At head of title: International Monetary Fund, Asia and Pacific Department |
| Bibliography |
Includes bibliographical references (pages 33-34) |
| Notes |
Online resource; title from pdf title page (IMF.org Web site, viewed September 20, 2016) |
| Subject |
Economic development -- China
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Exports -- China
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Economic development.
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Exports.
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International economic relations.
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| SUBJECT |
China -- Foreign economic relations -- Southeast Asia
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Southeast Asia -- Foreign economic relations -- China
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| Subject |
China.
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Southeast Asia.
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| Form |
Electronic book
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| Author |
Guajardo, Jaime, author, (IMF staff)
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Klyuev, Vladimir, author, (IMF staff)
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Mano, Rui C., author, (IMF staff)
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Raissi, Mehdi, author, (IMF staff)
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International Monetary Fund, publisher.
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International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Department, issuing body.
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| ISBN |
9781475524260 |
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1475524269 |
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