Contents Abbreviations and acronyms1 Executive Summary 2 The scenarios 2 The main findings 3 Policy implications 1 Introduction 5 Methodology 6 Probabilities and (key) uncertainties for the future of Syria and policy planning 6 Reading guidance 2 Fragile peace A future history 9 The situation in 2019 11 Main policy options for the Fragile Peace scenario 12 3 Reconquista 15 A future history 15 The situation in 2019 17 Main policy options for the Reconquista scenario 18 4 Warlordism 21 A future history 21 The situation in 2019 Main policy options for the Warlordism scenario 24 5 Frozen conflict26 A future history 26 The situation in 2019 27 Main policy options for the Frozen Conflict scenario 29 6 Conclusions Reflection upon the scenarios Some general conclusions from the scenarios 7 Policy implications Robust options Selected options Overarching policy conclusions 40 Annex 1: Policy options per scenario
Summary
Executive Summary. The main aim of this report is to identify policy options for the future of Syria, using four potential scenarios in 2019. These scenarios are based on an extensive scenario-building process with a wide variety of stakeholders in order to contribute to policy and strategy planning. The scenariosThe scenarios are built on the basis of two key uncertainties:1) Will the levels of violence in the Syrian conflict decrease, or will they increase even further?2) Either by design or by use of force, will governance in Syria fragment further, or will it once again be more centralized?
