Cover Page; Title Page; Copyright Page; I. Introduction; II. Objectives and Data; III. Methodology; IV. Turning point analysis; V. Conclusion; References; Footnotes
Summary
This paper develops a new monthly World Trade Leading Indicator (WTLI) that relies on nonparametric and parametric approaches. Compared to the CPB World Trade Monitor's benchmark indicator for global trade the WTLI captures turning points in global trade with an average lead between 2 and 3 months. We also show that this cyclical indicator is able to track the annual growth rate in global trade, suggesting that the recent slowdown is due in part to certain cyclical factors. This new tool can provide policy makers with valuable foresight into the future direction of economic activity by tracking world trade more efficiently.--Abstract
Notes
"January 2015."
Bibliography
Includes bibliographical references (pages 13-14)
Notes
Online resource; title from pdf title page (IMF.org Web site, viewed January 29, 2015)
