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Author Gillingham, Kenneth, author

Title Modeling uncertainty in climate change : a multi-model comparison / Kenneth Gillingham, William D. Nordhaus, David Anthoff, Geoffrey Blanford, Valentina Bosetti, Peter Christensen, Haewon McJeon, John Reilly, Paul Sztorc
Published Cambridge, Mass. : National Bureau of Economic Research, 2015
Online access available from:
JSTOR Sustainability    View Resource Record  


Description 1 online resource (66 pages) : illustrations
Series NBER working paper series ; no. 21637
Working paper series (National Bureau of Economic Research) ; no. 21637
Summary The economics of climate change involves a vast array of uncertainties, complicating both the analysis and development of climate policy. This study presents the results of the first comprehensive study of uncertainty in climate change using multiple integrated assessment models. The study looks at model and parametric uncertainties for population, total factor productivity, and climate sensitivity. It estimates the pdfs of key output variables, including CO2 concentrations, temperature, damages, and the social cost of carbon (SCC). One key finding is that parametric uncertainty is more important than uncertainty in model structure. Our resulting pdfs also provide insights on tail events
Notes "October 2015"
Bibliography Includes bibliographical references (pages 62-66)
Notes Description based on online resource; title from viewed October 20, 2015
Subject Climatic changes -- Forecasting -- Econometric models
Uncertainty (Information theory) -- Econometric models
Form Electronic book
Author Anthoff, David, author
Blanford, Geoffrey, author
Bosetti, Valentina, author
Christensen, Peter, author
McJeon, Haewon, author
Nordhaus, William D., author
Reilly, John M. (John Matthew), 1955- author
Sztorc, Paul, author
National Bureau of Economic Research, publisher