Title Recoveries in the Middle East, North Africa, and Pakistan : have macroeconomic policies been effective? / prepared by Dalia S. Hakura and Francesco Grigoli

Published [Washington, D.C.] : International Monetary Fund, ©2010

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Description 1 online resource (31 pages) Series IMF working paper ; WP/10/122 IMF working paper ; WP/10/122. Contents Cover Page; Title Page; Copyright Page; Contents; I. Introduction; II. Determinants Of The Strength Of Recoveries; III. Empirical Analysis; A. Identifying Turning Points in Economic Activity; 1. Real Non-oil GDP Growth rates and HP-based Output Gaps; 2. Recessions and Recoveries; B. Empirical Strategy and Data; C. Data and Descriptive Statistics; 1. Properties of Non-Oil Output Growth Rates; 2. Descriptive Statistics on Filtered Non-Oil Output; 3. Recovery Years; D. Basic Facts on Episodes of Recessions and Recoveries in the MENAP Region 4. Average Duration, Amplitude, and Steepness of the Phases for Non-Oil Real GDP by Decade and Group of CountriesE. Estimation Results; 5. Summary Statistics of all the Variable; 6. Regressions of Non-Oil Output Growth in the First Year of Recovery, 1980-2008; IV. Conclusions; Appendix: Variable Definitions and Data Sources; References; Footnotes Summary This paper identifies and documents the properties of output gap recessions and recoveries in the Middle East, North Africa, and Pakistan (MENAP) during the 1980 to 2008 period. It goes on to investigate the key determinants of the recoveries. The duration of MENAP countries' recessions and recoveries has increased from the 1990s to the 2000s. MENAP hydrocarbon exporting countries' recessions were on average more pronounced in the 2000s, and hydrocarbon importing countries' recessions milder. Fiscal policy is found to have played a key role during the recoveries to potential output, although with weaker effects for MENAP countries that are more open to trade. Monetary policy is found to have been less effective. This is likely to be related to the fact that many of the MENAP countries have fixed exchange rate regimes and hence have limited room for active monetary policy Notes Title from PDF title page (IMF Web site, viewed June 28, 2010) At head of title: IMF Institute Bibliography Includes bibliographical references Notes "May 2010." Subject Recessions -- Middle East -- Econometric models Recessions -- Africa, North -- Econometric models Recessions -- Pakistan -- Econometric models Business cycles -- Middle East -- Econometric models Business cycles -- Africa, North -- Econometric models Fiscal policy -- Middle East -- Econometric models Fiscal policy -- Africa, North -- Econometric models Fiscal policy -- Pakistan -- Econometric models Monetary policy -- Middle East -- Econometric models Monetary policy -- Africa, North -- Econometric models Monetary policy -- Pakistan -- Econometric models Business cycles -- Econometric models Fiscal policy -- Econometric models Monetary policy -- Econometric models Recessions -- Econometric models North Africa Middle East Pakistan Form Electronic book Author Grigoli, Francesco, author. IMF Institute, issuing body. ISBN 1282846000 9781282846005 9781452700601 1452700605 9781455200818 1455200816 1462397115 9781462397112 9786612846007 6612846003

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