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Author Iacoviello, Matteo.

Title Short-term forecasting : projecting Italian GDP, one quarter to two years ahead / Matteo Iacoviello
Published [Washington, D.C.] : International Monetary Fund, European I Dept., [2001]
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Description 1 online resource (22 pages) : illustrations
Series IMF working paper ; WP/01/109
IMF working paper ; WP/01/109
Summary This paper presents a "bridge model" for short-run (one or two quarters ahead) forecasting of Italian GDP, relying on industrial production and survey indicators as key variables that can help in providing a real-time first GDP estimate. For a one- to two-year horizon, it formulates and estimates a Bayesian VAR (BVAR) model of the Italian economy. Both the "bridge" and the BVAR model can be of great help in supplementing traditional judgmental or structural econometric forecasts. Given their simplicity and their good forecasting power, the framework may be usefully extended to other variables as well as to other countries
Bibliography Includes bibliographical references (page 22)
Notes Master and use copy. Digital master created according to Benchmark for Faithful Digital Reproductions of Monographs and Serials, Version 1. Digital Library Federation, December 2002. MiAaHDL
digitized 2010 HathiTrust Digital Library committed to preserve pda MiAaHDL
Print version record
Subject Gross domestic product -- Italy -- Forecasting -- Econometric models.
Italy -- Economic conditions -- Forecasting -- Econometric models.
Form Electronic book
Author International Monetary Fund. European I Department.
ISBN 1451898797