| Description |
1 online resource (47 pages) : color illustrations |
| Series |
IMF working paper ; WP/14/91 |
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IMF working paper ; WP/14/91.
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| Contents |
Cover; Contents; I. Introduction; FIGURES; Figure 1: Inflation: Deviation from the Target; II. Literature Review; III. The Methodology: Are "Reports" Validated by "Models"?; Figure 2: Inflation Forecast; A. Correlations; B. Selecting the Threshold Value for Our Correlations; C. Leads and Lags in Reporting of Inflation Factors; TABLES; Table 1: Guidelines for the Interpretation of a Correlation Coefficient; D. Data Transformation; Table 2: Common Trends in Reported Factors; Figure 3: Inflation Factors Were Similar Across the Sample Countries; E. The Model; Table 3: The List of Variables |
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IV. The ResultsTable 4: All Countries: Correlation Between Reported and Model-Identified Inflation Factors, 2000-2009; A. Overall Balance of Inflation Factors; B. Subcategories of Inflation Factors; Table 5: Correlation Between Reported and Model-Identified Inflation Factors, 2000-2009; C. Policy Implications: Glass Half Full or Half Empty?; V. Conclusions; REFERENCES; References; APPENDIXES; Appendix 1: Coding the Inflation Reports; Appendix 2: The Model and Its Calibration; Appendix 3: Tests of Predictive Power |
| Summary |
"We offer a novel methodology for assessing the quality of inflation reports. In contrast to the existing literature, which mostly evaluates the formal quality of these reports, we evaluate their economic content by comparing inflation factors reported by the central banks with ex-post model-identified factors. Regarding the former, we use verbal analysis and coding of inflation reports to describe inflation factors communicated by central banks in real time. Regarding the latter, we use reduced-form, new Keynesian models and revised data to approximate the true inflation factors. Positive correlations indicate that the reported inflation factors were similar to the true, model-identified ones and hence mark high-quality inflation reports. Although central bank reports on average identify inflation factors correctly, the degree of forward-looking reporting varies across factors, time, and countries"--Abstract |
| Notes |
"Institute for Capacity Development"--Page 2 of pdf |
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"May 2014"--Page 2 of pdf |
| Bibliography |
Includes bibliographical references |
| Notes |
Online resource; title from pdf title page (IMF.org Web site, viewed June 16, 2014) |
| Subject |
Inflation targeting.
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Monetary policy -- Public relations
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Kalman filtering.
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Inflation targeting
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Kalman filtering
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| Form |
Electronic book
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| Author |
Hurník, Jaromír, author.
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Šmídková, Kateřina, author.
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International Monetary Fund. Institute for Capacity Development, issuing body.
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