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Author Celasun, Oya, author

Title Primary surplus behavior and risks to fiscal sustainability in emerging market countries : a "fan-chart" approach / O. Celasun, X. Debrun, and J.D. Ostry
Published [Washington, D.C.] : International Monetary Fund, Research and Fiscal Affairs Dept., 2006
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Description 1 online resource (52 pages) : illustrations
Series IMF working paper ; WP/06/67
IMF working paper ; WP/06/67
Summary This paper proposes a probabilistic approach to public debt sustainability analysis (DSA) using "fan charts." These depict the magnitude of risks-upside and downside-surrounding public debt projections as a result of uncertain economic conditions and policies. We propose a simulation algorithm for the path of public debt under realistic shock configurations, combining pure economic disturbances (to growth, interest rates, and exchange rates), the endogenous policy response to these, and the possible shocks arising from fiscal policy itself. The paper emphasizes the role of fiscal behavior, as well as the structure of disturbances facing the economy and due to fiscal policy, in shaping the risk profile of public debt. Fan charts for debt are derived from the "marriage" between the pattern of shocks on the one hand and the endogenous response of fiscal policy on the other. Applications to Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, South Africa, and Turkey are used to illustrate the approach and its limitations
Bibliography Includes bibliographical references
Notes Master and use copy. Digital master created according to Benchmark for Faithful Digital Reproductions of Monographs and Serials, Version 1. Digital Library Federation, December 2002. MiAaHDL
digitized 2010 HathiTrust Digital Library committed to preserve pda MiAaHDL
Print version record
Subject Debts, Public -- Econometric models.
Fiscal policy -- Econometric models.
Form Electronic book
Author Debrun, Xavier, author
Ostry, Jonathan David, 1962- author
International Monetary Fund. Research and Fiscal Affairs Department
ISBN 1283517035