| Description |
1 online resource (34 pages) : coll. illustrations |
| Series |
IMF working paper ; WP/14/191 |
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IMF working paper ; WP/14/191.
|
| Contents |
Title Page; Copyright Page; Abstract; Contents; Tables; Figures; Appendices; I. Introduction; II. Analytical Framework; III. Overview of the Data; A. Demand-Side Factors; 1. Unemployment rate; B. Supply-Side, Cost-Push Factors; 2. Contributions to Headline Inflation; 4. EU: Tradable Goods Inflation; 5. Nominal Effective Exchange Rates; 6. Net Fund Flows to Advanced and Emerging Markets, 2012-14; 7. Contributions of Taxes and Administered Prices to Headline Inflation; 8. Consensus Forecasts of Inflation 2-Years Ahead; IV. Empirical Analysis; A. Regression Specification; B. Regression Analysis |
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1. Fixed-Effects Estimation of Expectations-Augmented Phillips Curve9. Variance Decomposition of Headline Inflation; 2. Impact of One Percentage Point Increase in Euro Area Core Inflation on Domestic Headline Inflation; C. Robustness Tests; D. Inflation Outlook; 10. Difference Between Model-based Forecast of Annual Inflation in Mid-2015 and its Mid-2014 Reading; 11. Conditional Inflation Forecast, mid-2015; V. Summary and Policy Implications; References; I. Appendix Figures and Tables; II. Definitions of Explanatory Variables; 3. Foreign Value-Added Content of Domestic Demand; Footnotes |
| Summary |
The synchronized disinflation across Europe since end-2011 raises the question of whether non-euro area EU countries are affected by the undershooting of the euro area inflation target. To shed light on this issue, we estimate an open-economy, New Keynesian Phillips curve, in which we control for imported inflation. Regression results suggest that falling food and energy prices have been the main disinflationary driver. But low core inflation in the euro area has also had a clear and significant impact. Countries with more rigid exchange-rate regimes and higher share of foreign value added in domestic demand have been more affected. The scope for monetary response to low inflation in non-euro area EU countries depends on concerns about financial stability and unanchoring of inflationary expectations, as well as on exchange rate regime and capital flows dynamics. --Abstract |
| Notes |
"October 2014." |
|
"European Department' |
| Bibliography |
Includes bibliographical references (pages 22-24) |
| Notes |
Online resource; title from pdf title page (IMF.org Web site, viewed October 29, 2014) |
| Subject |
Inflation (Finance) -- Europe, Central
|
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Inflation (Finance) -- Europe, Eastern
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Inflation (Finance) -- Sweden
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Inflation (Finance) -- Great Britain
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Inflation (Finance) -- Denmark
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Inflation (Finance)
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Denmark
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Central Europe
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Eastern Europe
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Great Britain
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Sweden
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| Form |
Electronic book
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| Author |
Podpiera, Jiří, 1976- author.
|
|
International Monetary Fund. European Department, issuing body.
|
| ISBN |
9781498386173 |
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1498386172 |
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9781484389751 |
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1484389751 |
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