| Description |
1 online resource (32 pages) : color illustrations |
| Series |
IMF working paper, 1018-5941 ; WP/16/202 |
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IMF working paper ; WP/16/202.
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| Contents |
Cover; Contents; I. Introduction; II. Literature Review; III. Selection of Episodes; IV. What Drives Debt Spikes?; V. What Is Behind SFAs?; VI. What Are the Consequences of Sizable And Unforecasted SFAs?; VII. Conclusions; References; Figures; 1. Public Debt, 1880-2015 (percent of GDP); 2. Advanced and Developing Countries: Changes in General Government Debt to GDP and Cumulative Primary Deficits, 1973-2015; 3. Public Debt Spikes: Size and Duration; 4. Probability of Entering a Debt Spike Episode; 5. Decomposition of Changes to Debt to GDP Before, During, and After the Debt Spike |
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6. EU Member Countries: Breakdown of SFA During Debt Spike Episodes, 2002-20147. EU Member Countries: Breakdown of Net Acquisition of Financial Assets During Debt Spike Episodes, 2002-2014; 8. Liquidity of SFA Components; 9. The Negative Correlation between Governance Indicators and SFAs; 10. Probability of Entering a Debt Spike with Strong Institutions; 11. Distribution of Actual and Forecast Annual Changes in Debt to GDP; 12. Distribution of Annual Forecast Errors of SFAs; 13. EU Countries: Average Stock Flow Adjustments, Actual vs Forecast, 1991-2014 |
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14. Using Historical Trends to Forecast Future SFAsTables; 1. Regression Analysis: Explaining the Size of SFA During Debt Spikes; 2. Probit results for the ex-post non-declining debt path; Annexes; 1. Robustness Checks; 2. The Kaplan-meier Survival Estimation Technique; 3. Description of Debt Spike Episodes |
| Summary |
What explains public debt spikes since the end of WWII? To answer this question, this paper identifies 179 debt spike episodes from 1945 to 2014 across advanced and developing countries. We find that debt spikes are not rare events and their probability increases with time. We then show that large public debt spikes are neither driven by high primary deficits nor by output declines but instead by sizable stock-flow adjustments (SFAs). We also find that SFAs are poorly forecasted, which can affect debt sustainability analyses, and are associated with a higher probability of suffering non-declining debt paths in the aftermath of public debt spikes |
| Notes |
"October 2016." |
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At head of title: International Monetary Fund, Fiscal Affairs Department |
| Bibliography |
Includes bibliographical references (pages 31-32) |
| Notes |
Online resource; title from pdf title page (IMF.org Web site, viewed November 4, 2016) |
| Subject |
Debts, Public.
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Stock-flow analysis.
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Economic forecasting.
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Debts, Public
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Economic forecasting
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Stock-flow analysis
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| Form |
Electronic book
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| Author |
Mulas-Granados, Carlos, author, (IMF staff)
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Kimani, Elijah, author, (IMF staff)
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International Monetary Fund, publisher.
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International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Department, issuing body.
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| ISBN |
9781475545043 |
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1475545045 |
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