| Description |
1 online resource (30 pages) : illustrations |
| Series |
IMF working paper, 2227-8885 ; WP/07/135 |
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IMF working paper ; WP/07/135.
|
| Contents |
I. Introduction; II. Modeling Demand and Supply of Crude Oil and Natural Gas; III. Short-Run Demand and Supply Analysis; A. Short-Run Crude Oil Demand Elasticities; Tables; 1. Crude Oil and Natural Gas: Short-Term Demand and Supply Elasticities; B. Short-Run Natural Gas Demand Elasticities; Figures; 1a. Ratio of Natural Gas to Crude Oil Output, 1970-2006; 1b. Ratio of Natural Gas to Crude Oil Price, 1970-2006; C. Short-Run Crude Oil Supply Elasticities; D. Short-Run Natural Gas Supply Elasticities; IV. Simulation of the Model and Multiplier Analysis |
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A. Simulation of the Annual Model: Sample 1970-2006B. Simulation of the Quarterly Model: Sample 1984Q1-2006Q2; 2. Annual Simulation of the Oil and Natural Gas Model, 1970-2006; C. Multiplier Analysis; 3. Quarterly Simulation of the Oil and Natural Gas Model, 1984Q1-2006Q2; V. Structural Vector Auto-Regression Analysis; 2. Multiplier Analysis; VI. Conclusions; 4. Annual Structural VAR: Impulse Responses; 5. Quarterly Structural VAR: Impulse Responses; References |
| Summary |
This paper formulated a short-run model, with an explicit role for monetary policy, for analyzing world oil and gas markets. The model described carefully the parameters of these markets and their vulnerability to business cycles. Estimates showed that short-run demand for oil and gas was price- inelastic, relatively income-elastic, and was influenced by interest and exchange rates; short-run supply was price-inelastic. Short-run price inelasticity could be a source for high volatility in oil and gas prices, and could confer to producers a temporary market power. Being simultaneous and incorporating interest and exchange rates, the model could be useful in short-term forecasting of oil and gas outputs and prices under policy scenarios |
| Bibliography |
Includes bibliographical references (pages 29-30) |
| Notes |
Master and use copy. Digital master created according to Benchmark for Faithful Digital Reproductions of Monographs and Serials, Version 1. Digital Library Federation, December 2002. http://purl.oclc.org/DLF/benchrepro0212 MiAaHDL |
|
English |
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Print version record |
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digitized 2010 HathiTrust Digital Library committed to preserve pda MiAaHDL |
| Subject |
Petroleum products -- Prices -- Econometric models
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Natural gas -- Prices -- Econometric models
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Petroleum industry and trade -- Econometric models
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Gas industry -- Econometric models
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Monetary policy -- Econometric models
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Gas industry -- Econometric models
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Monetary policy -- Econometric models
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Petroleum industry and trade -- Econometric models
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Petroleum products -- Prices -- Econometric models
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| Form |
Electronic book
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| Author |
International Monetary Fund. African Department
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| ISBN |
1283518937 |
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9781283518932 |
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1451911521 |
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9781451911527 |
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1462310427 |
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9781462310425 |
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1452735999 |
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9781452735993 |
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9786613831385 |
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6613831387 |
|
