| Description |
1 online resource (36 pages) : color charts |
| Series |
IMF working paper ; WP/12/159 |
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IMF working paper ; WP/12/159.
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| Contents |
Cover; Contents; I. Introduction; II. Related Literature; III. Econometric Methodology and Model Specification; A. Model Specification; Figures; 1. Binary Response Model Structure; Tables; 1. Countries in Data Sample; 2. Systemic Banking Crises, 1970-2010; IV. Estimation Results; 3. Standardized Marginal Effects; 4. Systemic Risk Factors; 2. Systemic Risk Factors based on Dynamic Logit Model, 1970-2010; V. Monitoring Systemic Risk; A. The Signal Extraction Approach; 3. Signal Classification; B. Crisis signals based on binary response model; 5. Optimal Threshold |
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4. Monitoring Systemic Risk, 1970-2010C. Risk Factor Thresholds; 6. Systemic Risk Estimates and Crisis Signals; 7. Credit-to-GDP Growth Threshold; D. Out-of-Sample Analysis; 5. Monitoring Systemic Risk -- Out-of-Sample Analysis: 2001-2010; VI. Concluding Remarks; 8. Systemic Risk Estimates for the United States; Appendices; I. Data Sources and Description; 6. Systemic Risk Factors (1/2), 1970-2010; II. Binary Response Model Estimation Results; 7. Systemic Risk Factors (2/2), 1970-2010; 8. Systemic Risk Factors based on Dynamic Logit Model (Credit-to-GDP Growth), 1970-2010 |
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9. Systemic Banking Crises DatesIII. Systemic Banking Crises Dates; References |
| Summary |
Successful implementation of macroprudential policy is contingent on the ability to identify and estimate systemic risk in real time. In this paper, systemic risk is defined as the conditional probability of a systemic banking crisis and this conditional probability is modeled in a fixed effect binary response model framework. The model structure is dynamic and is designed for monitoring as the systemic risk forecasts only depend on data that are available in real time. Several risk factors are identified and it is hereby shown that the level of systemic risk contains a predictable component which varies through time. Furthermore, it is shown how the systemic risk forecasts map into crisis signals and how policy thresholds are derived in this framework. Finally, in an out-of-sample exercise, it is shown that the systemic risk estimates provided reliable early warning signals ahead of the recent financial crisis for several economies |
| Notes |
Title from PDF title page (IMF Web site, viewed June 25, 2012) |
| Bibliography |
Includes bibliographical references (pages 33-35) |
| Notes |
"June 2012." |
| Subject |
Risk -- Econometric models
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Financial crises -- Econometric models
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Economic policy -- Econometric models
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Economic policy -- Econometric models
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Financial crises -- Econometric models
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Risk -- Econometric models
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| Form |
Electronic book
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| Author |
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department, issuing body.
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| ISBN |
1475504578 |
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9781475504576 |
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1475537255 |
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9781475537253 |
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9781475565461 |
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1475565461 |
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