Machine derived contents note: 1 ntroduction 1 -- 1 Background 1 -- 1.2 Objectives of the Study 8 -- 3 Structure of the Study 9 -- 2 Secular Decline in Relative Commodity Prices: A Brief Review of 11 -- the Literature -- 2. The Genesis of the Debate 11 -- 2.2 Empirical Findings to the mid 1980s 13 -- 2.3 The Grilli-Yang Study and Subsequent Empirical nvestigations 14 -- 2.4 Structural Models 19 -- 2.5 Conduding Observations 20 -- 3 Longrun Trend in the Relative Price: Empirica Estimation for 26 -- Individual Commodities -- 3.1 Methodology 26 -- 32 Estimation Results 29 -- 3.2 1 Trend Growth Rates of Relative Prices for Commodities in the 30 -- Grilli-Yang Data Set -- 3. 22 Estimation for Commodities in the UNCTAD Database 32 -- 3.3 Conclusion 41 -- 4 Estimating Foreign Exchange Loss Due to Declining Commodity Prices 42 -- 41 Foreign Exchange Loss ased on the Trend Decline Rate 42 -- 4. Foreign Exchange Loss asd on Actual Prices 44 -- 4.2 1 Foreign Exchange Losses from Primary Commodity Exports 46 -- 4.2.2 Foreign Exchange Losses by Commodities 50 -- 4 3 Increased Supply and Depressed Prices 52 -- 4.4 Conclusion 53 -- 5 nstruments for Addressing Commodity Price Behaviour 54 -- 5.1 International Commodity Agreements 55 -- 52 External Compensatory Finance 57 -- 5.2 1 Compensatory (and Contingency) Financing Facilty 58 -- 5.2.2 EC ACP Programmes: STABEX, YSMIN and COMPEX 58 -- 5.3 Preferential Trade Agreements 60 -- 5.4 Market-based nstruments for Commodity Risk Management and 61 -- Insurance Schemes -- 5.5 Conclusion 62 -- 6 Aid Flows and Commodity Pices 63 -- 6.1 Aid F ows and Declining Commodity Prices 63 -- 6.2 A Proposal for the Establishment of an Aidfinanced Diversification Fund 68 -- 62. 1 Priniples of Scheme Design 68 -- 6 2.2 Hypothetical Costs to Developed Countres of the Diversification Fund 72 -- 6.3 Conclusion 77 -- 7 Commodity Prices and the Debt Relicf ntiative 78 -- 7.1 ommodity rices and Debt 78 -- 72 Debt Relief nitiatives 81 -- 7.3 Commodity Prices and the HIPC Initiaive 85 -- 7.4 Incorporatng Rea Price Adustment Mechanism i the HIPC Initiative 92 -- to Address the Problem of Weakness in Commodity Prices -- 74. 1I Hypotheticar Cot of a Real Commodity Pric Adjustment Mechanism 93 -- under the HIPC Initiative -- 8 :tendusion 97
Bibliography
Includes bibliographical references (pages 152-161)
