| Description |
1 online resource |
| Series |
Science, technology and innovation studies |
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Science, technology and innovation studies
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| Contents |
Acknowledgments; Contents; Authors; 1: Introduction; 1.1 Why This Book?; 1.2 foresight, Foresight-and Foresight for STI; 2: Foresight for STI: What and Why; 2.1 The Nature of Foresight and ForSTI; 2.2 The Origins of ForSTI; 2.3 ForSTI as a Process; 3: Initiation: Scoping and Managing ForSTI; 3.1 Introduction; 3.2 Twelve Elements of Scoping; 3.3 Conclusions; 4: Interaction: Participation and Recruitment; 4.1 Introduction; 4.2 Panels: The Heart of ForSTI; 4.2.1 Working with Panels in ForSTI: Seven Steps; 4.2.2 Ways of Working with Panels; 4.3 Common Interaction Methods; 4.3.1 Brainstorming |
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Box 4.1: Participant Notes on Brainstorming4.3.2 Mind-Mapping; Box 4.2: Mind-Mapping Stages; 4.4 Conclusions; 5: Intelligence: Environmental and Horizon Scanning; 5.1 Introduction; 5.2 Environmental Scanning; Box 5.1: STEEPV Acronym; 5.3 Horizon Scanning; 5.3.1 Trends; Box 5.2: Examples of Trends; 5.3.2 Drivers; Box 5.3: Examples of Drivers; 5.3.3 Weak Signals; Box 5.4: Examples of Weak Signals; 5.3.4 Wild Cards; Box 5.5: Examples of Wild Cards; 5.3.5 Discontinuities; Box 5.6: Examples of Discontinuities; Box 5.7: An Example for Comparing HS Terminology |
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Box 5.8: Horizon Scanning in Health: UK Example 5.4 Tools for Environmental and Horizon Scanning; 5.4.1 Reviewing; Box 5.9: A Selection of Sources on Horizon Scanning, Wild Cards, and Related Techniques; 5.4.2 Brainstorming for Scanning; Box 5.10: Tasks for STEEPV Brainstorming to Identify Drivers of Change; TASK 1B: Working with the Outputs of STEEPV Brainstorming; TASK 2; TASK 2B: STEEPV Voting-Importance; TASK 2C: Top STEEPV Items; TASK 2D: STEEPV Voting-Uncertainty; 5.4.3 Surveys; 5.4.4 Big Data, Bibliometrics and Semantic Analysis; Box 5.11: Data Analysis Terms Defined |
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Box 5.12: Identification of the Trends in the Use of ForSTI Methods Through a Scientometric Analysis5.4.5 Network Analysis; 5.5 Conclusions; 6: Intelligence: Delphi; 6.1 Introduction; 6.2 Applications of the Delphi Method; 6.3 Resources Needed for Delphi; 6.4 Delphi Process; 6.4.1 Preparatory Work; 6.4.2 Formulation of Topic Statements; 6.4.3 Formulation of Questions to Be Asked About the Topic Statements; 6.4.4 Survey Implementation; 6.4.5 Analysis and Dissemination of Results; Box 6.1: Delphi Survey -- An International Case Study; Box 6.2: Delphi Survey -- A National Case Study |
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6.5 Types of Delphi Surveys6.5.1 ̀̀Standard ́́Delphi 1: Forecasting ̀̀What ́́and ̀̀When;́́ 6.5.2 ̀̀Standard ́́Delphi 2: Forecasting ̀̀How Far;́́ 6.5.3 ̀̀Impacts ́́Delphi; Box 6.3: European Knowledge Society Foresight Delphi Survey; 6.5.4 ̀̀Policy ́́Delphi; 6.5.5 ̀̀Multiple Scenarios ́́Delphi; 6.5.6 Other Types of Delphi; 6.6 Conclusions; 7: Imagination: Scenarios and Alternative Futures; 7.1 Introduction; 7.2 Introducing Scenarios; 7.3 Scenarios: One or Many?; 7.4 Methods for Scenario Development; 7.5 Scenario Workshops; 7.6 Scenario Approaches; 7.7 Scenario Building and Analysis in Workshops |
| Summary |
Decision-makers at all levels are being confronted with novel complexities and uncertainties and face long-term challenges which require foresight about long-term future prospects, assumptions, and strategies. This book explores how foresight studies can be systematically undertaken and used in this context. It explicates why and how methods like horizon scanning, scenario planning, and roadmapping should be applied when dealing with high levels of uncertainty |
| Bibliography |
Includes bibliographical references |
| Notes |
Online resource, title from PDF title page (EBSCO), viewed September 7, 2016 |
| Subject |
Technological forecasting.
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Research & development management.
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Public administration.
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Operational research.
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TECHNOLOGY & ENGINEERING -- General.
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Technological forecasting
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| Form |
Electronic book
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| Author |
Saritas, Ozcan, author
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Sokolov, Alexander, author
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| ISBN |
9783319325743 |
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3319325744 |
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3319325728 |
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9783319325729 |
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