Title We just averaged over two trillion cross-country growth regressions / prepared by Eduardo Ley and Mark F.J. Steel

Published [Washington, D.C.] : International Monetary Fund, Fiscal Affairs Department, ©1999

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Description 1 online resource (20 pages) : illustrations Series IMF working paper ; WP/99/101 IMF working paper ; WP/99/101. Summary We investigate the issue of model uncertainty in cross-country growth regressions using Bayesian model averaging (BMA). We find that the posterior probability is distributed among many models, suggesting the superiority of BMA over any single model. Out-of-sample predictive results support that claim. In contrast with Levine and Renelt (1992), our results broadly support the more "optimistic" conclusion of Sala-i-Martin (1997b), namely, that some variables are important regressors for explaining cross-country growth patterns. However, the variables we identify as most useful for growth regression differ substantially from Sala-i-Martin's results Bibliography Includes bibliographical references (pages 19-20) Notes Master and use copy. Digital master created according to Benchmark for Faithful Digital Reproductions of Monographs and Serials, Version 1. Digital Library Federation, December 2002. http://purl.oclc.org/DLF/benchrepro0212 MiAaHDL digitized 2010 HathiTrust Digital Library committed to preserve pda MiAaHDL Print version record Subject Economic development -- Econometric models Forecasting -- Econometric models Regression analysis -- Econometric models Uncertainty -- Econometric models Economic development -- Econometric models Forecasting -- Econometric models Regression analysis -- Econometric models Uncertainty -- Econometric models Form Electronic book Author Steel, Mark F. J International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Department. ISBN 1451898126 9781451898125 128160125X 9781281601254

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