Title Global economic prospects. June 2023 / a product of the Prospects Group in the Development Economics (DEC) and Equitable Growth, Finance, and Institutions (EFI) Vice Presidencies

Published Washington, DC : World Bank Group, [2023]

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Description 1 online resource (xix, 160 pages) : color illustrations Series A World Bank Group flagship report World Bank Group flagship report Contents Cover -- Half Title -- Title Page -- Copyright Page -- Summary of Contents -- Table Contents -- Acknowledgments -- Foreword -- Executive Summary -- Abbreviations -- Chapter 1 Global Outlook -- Summary -- Global context -- Global trade -- Commodity markets -- Global inflation -- Global financial developments -- Major economies: Recent developments and outlook -- Advanced economies -- China -- Emerging market and developing economies -- Recent developments -- Outlook -- Global outlook and risks -- Global outlook -- Risks to the outlook -- Policy challenges -- Key global challenges Challenges in emerging market and developing economies -- References -- Chapter 2 Regional Outlooks -- East Asia and Pacific -- Recent developments -- Outlook -- Risks -- Europe and Central Asia -- Recent developments -- Outlook -- Risks -- Latin America and the Caribbean -- Recent developments -- Outlook -- Risks -- Middle East and North Africa -- Recent developments -- Outlook -- Risks -- South Asia -- Recent developments -- Outlook -- Risks -- Sub-Saharan Africa -- Recent developments -- Outlook -- Risks -- References -- Chapter 3 Financial Spillovers of Rising U.S. Interest Rates Introduction -- Methodology and data -- Differentiating between real, inflation, and reaction shocks -- Estimating the impact on EMDEs -- Modeling financial crisis probability -- Assessing the role of financial market vulnerabilities and macroeconomic imbalances -- Shocks to U.S. interest rates and impact on EMDE financial markets -- Shock decomposition during major episodes of sharp U.S. interest rates movements -- Impact of U.S. interest rate shocks on EMDE financial markets -- Correlates of financial crises -- Role of EMDE vulnerabilities and macroeconomic imbalances Role of credit ratings and sovereign risk -- Role of twin deficits -- Role of frontier market status -- Conclusions and policy implications -- Annex 3.1 Identifying U.S. interest rate shocks -- Annex 3.2 Estimating the impact of U.S. interest rate shocks on EMDEs -- Annex 3.3 Modeling financial crisis probability -- Annex 3.4 Assessing the role of EMDE vulnerabilities -- Annex 3.5 Robustness analysis -- References -- Chapter 4 Fiscal Policy Challenges in Low-Income Countries -- Introduction -- Evolution of fiscal positions in LICs -- Conceptual framework -- Evolution of debt Evolution of primary deficits -- Evolution of revenues -- Evolution of expenditures -- Fiscal policy options in LICs -- Domestic resource mobilization -- Expenditure efficiency -- Robust fiscal frameworks -- Conclusion -- Annex 4.1 Debt decomposition -- Annex 4.2 Measuring spending efficiency -- References -- Statistical Appendix -- Data and Forecast Conventions -- Selected Topics -- Boxes -- 1.1 Regional perspectives: Outlook and risks -- 1.2 Recent developments and outlook for low-income countries -- Figures -- 1.1 Global prospects -- 1.2 Global risks and policy challenges -- 1.3 Global trade -- 1.4 Commodity markets Summary Global growth is projected to slow significantly in the second half of this year, with weakness continuing in 2024. Inflation pressures persist, and tight monetary policy is expected to weigh substantially on activity. The possibility of more widespread bank turmoil and tighter monetary policy could result in even weaker global growth. Rising borrowing costs in advanced economies could lead to financial dislocations in the more vulnerable emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs). In low-income countries, in particular, fiscal positions are increasingly precarious. Comprehensive policy action is needed at the global and national levels to foster macroeconomic and financial stability. Among many EMDEs, and especially in low-income countries, bolstering fiscal sustainability will require generating higher revenues, making spending more efficient, and improving debt management practices. Continued international cooperation is also necessary to tackle climate change, support populations affected by crises and hunger, and provide debt relief where needed. In the longer term, reversing a projected decline in EMDE potential growth will require reforms to bolster physical and human capital and labor-supply growth Notes "The project was managed by M. Ayhan Kose and Franziska Ohnsorge, under the general guidance of Indermit Gill."--Acknowledgments ISSN: 1564-7021 Bibliography Includes bibliographical references Notes Description based on online resource; title from digital title page (viewed on September 29, 2023) Subject Economic forecasting -- Developing countries Economic forecasting. Economic history -- 1990- International economic relations. Economic policy. Economic forecasting Economic history Economic policy Economics International economic relations SUBJECT Developing countries -- Economic conditions. http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh85037344 Subject Developing countries Form Electronic book Author World Bank. Office of the Vice President, Development Economics, issuing body World Bank Group. Equitable Growth, Finance and Institutions Global Practice Group, issuing body ISBN 9781464819520 1464819521

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