Front Cover; Early Warning for Infectious Disease Outbreak: Theory and Practice; Copyright; Dedication; Contents; List of contributors; Foreword; Preface; Acknowledgments; List of abbreviations; Part 1: Theories and Key Technologies of Infectious Disease Early Warning; Chapter 1: Introduction; 1.1. Basic Terminologies: Surveillance, Early Warning, and Prediction; 1.2. A Conceptual Framework for Early Warning; 1.3. Setting of Early Warning Targets; 1.4. Early Warning Data Collection; 1.5. Early Warning Data Analysis; 1.6. Early Warning Information Delivery and Dissemination
1.7. Early Warning Responses1.8. Evaluating Early Warning Systems; 1.9. Early Warning Classification; 1.10. Case-Based Early Warning; 1.11. Event-Based Early Warning; 1.12. Lab-Based Early Warning; 1.13. Syndromic Surveillance-Based Early Warning; 1.14. Status Quo and Surveillance and Early Warning Trends for Infectious Diseases; 1.14.1. History of Infectious Disease Early Warning; 1.15. Early Warning Technology and Systems for Infectious Diseases in China; 1.16. Trends in Early Warning Technology; References; Chapter 2: Infectious Disease Surveillance in China; 2.1. Introduction
2.1.1. Definition and Elements of Surveillance2.1.2. Scope of Surveillance; 2.1.3. Role and Classification of Surveillance; 2.2. Infectious Disease Surveillance in China; 2.2.1. National Notifiable Infectious Disease Surveillance System; 2.2.2. Enhanced Infectious Disease Surveillance System; 2.2.3. Vector Surveillance; 2.2.4. Laboratory-Based Surveillance; 2.2.5. Syndromic Surveillance; 2.3. Public Health Emergency Event Surveillance; References; Chapter 3: Development of Early Warning Models; 3.1. Types of Early Warning Models; 3.1.1. Early Warning Models Based on Temporal Dimensions
3.1.2. Early Warning Models Based on Spatial Dimensions3.1.3. Early Warning Models Based on Both Temporal and Spatial Dimensions; 3.1.4. Early Warning Models Based on Regression; 3.1.5. Early Warning Techniques Based on Multiple Sources of Data; 3.2. Principles of Common Early Warning Models; 3.2.1. Simple Control Charts; 3.2.2. The Ratio Chart Method; 3.2.3. The MPM Model; 3.2.4. The EWMA Model; 3.2.5. The CUSUM Method; 3.2.6. EARS-3Cs Methods; 3.2.7. The Space-Time Scan Statistic; 3.2.8. Poisson Regression; 3.2.9. The ARIMA Model; 3.2.10. Other Early Warning Models; The Serfling Method
The Wavelet TransformationThe Hidden Markov Model; The WSARE Model; 3.3. Statistical Methods for Evaluating Models; 3.3.1. Timeliness; 3.3.2. Sensitivity and Specificity; A Fourfold Table for Authenticity Analysis; Sensitivity; Event-Based Sensitivity and Specificity; The Balance Between Sensitivity and Specificity; 3.3.3. ROC and AUC Analysis; 3.3.4. The AMOC Curve; 3.3.5. The Sensitivity-Timeliness Curve; 3.3.6. The Agreement Rate; 3.3.7. The Predictive Value; References; Further Reading; Chapter 4: Response to Early Warning Signals
Notes
4.1. Investigation and Verification of Early Warning Signals
