Title Assessing early warning systems : how have they worked in practice? / prepared by Andrew Berg, Eduardo Borensztein, and Catherine Pattillo

Published [Washington, D.C.] : International Monetary Fund, ©2004

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Description 1 online resource (44 pages) : illustrations Series IMF working paper ; WP/04/52 IMF working paper ; WP/04/52. Contents ""Contents""; ""I. INTRODUCTION""; ""II. EARLY-WARNING-SYSTEM (EWS) MODELS""; ""III. VALUE ADDED OF EWS MODELS""; ""IV. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS""; ""REFERENCES"" Summary Since 1999, the IMF's staff has been tracking several early-warning-system (EWS) models of currency crisis. The results have been mixed. One of the long-horizon models has performed well relative to pure guesswork and to available non-model-based forecasts, such as agency ratings and private analysts' currency crisis risk scores. The data do not speak clearly on the other long-horizon EWS model. The two short-horizon private sector models generally performed poorly Notes "March 2004"--Page [1] Bibliography Includes bibliographical references (pages 42-44) Notes At head of title: Research Department Master and use copy. Digital master created according to Benchmark for Faithful Digital Reproductions of Monographs and Serials, Version 1. Digital Library Federation, December 2002. http://purl.oclc.org/DLF/benchrepro0212 MiAaHDL Print version record digitized 2010 HathiTrust Digital Library committed to preserve pda MiAaHDL Subject Financial crises -- Forecasting Balance of payments -- Forecasting Foreign exchange rates -- Econometric models Balance of payments -- Forecasting Foreign exchange rates -- Econometric models Form Electronic book Author Borensztein, Eduardo, author. Pattillo, Catherine A. (Catherine Anne), author International Monetary Fund. Research Department, issuing body. ISBN 1281263737 9781281263735 1451894244 9781451894240 9781451847284 1451847289 ISSN 2227-8885

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