| Description |
1 online resource (45 pages) : color illustrations |
| Series |
IMF country report ; no. 14/58 |
|
IMF country report ; no. 14/58.
|
| Contents |
Cover; CONTENTS; INDIA'S CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT FROM THE SAVINGS-INVESTMENT PERSPECTIVE; References; SPILLOVER ANALYSIS: INDIA; FIGURES; 1. Responses of Output to a Negative GDP Shock in China; 2. Responses of Output to a Negative GDP Shock in the United States; 3. Responses of Output to a Negative GDP Shock in Euro Area; 4. Responses of Output to a Negative GDP Shock in India; 5. Responses of Indian Variables to a Long-Term Interest Rate Shock in the U.S.; 6. Impact of Oil-Supply Shocks on India; 7. Impact of Oil-Demand Shocks on India; 8. Crude Oil Consumption by Region; References |
|
INFLATION DYNAMICS AND MONETARY POLICY IN INDIAReferences; INDIA: DEFINING AND EXPLAINING INCLUSIVE GROWTH AND POVERTY REDUCTION; TABLES; 1. Evolution of Poverty; FIGURES; 1. Ratio of Urban to Rural Real Consumption; 2. Real NSDP Per Capita: Ratio of Richest to Poorest States; 3. Comparison of Growth and Inequality Contributions to Poverty Reduction Between Rural and Urban Households; 4. Comparison of Growth Incidence Curves Between Rural and Urban Households; 2. Regression Analysis of Growth Inclusiveness: State-Level, Urban and Rural Households; 3. Regression Analysis of Poverty Reduction |
| Summary |
"The background papers for the 2014 Article IV explore key issues affecting the Indian economy, and implications for fiscal, monetary, structural, and financial sector policies. The first chapter uncovers the factors behind the unprecedented widening of India's current account deficit in terms of the sectoral savings-investment balance. Persistently-high inflation is found to have depressed real returns, prompting a surge in gold imports and a marked deterioration in household financial savings. The second chapter investigates inward and outward spillovers to and from India. The results show that output shocks emanating in globally-systemic countries have important global effects, but their impact on India is limited. Shocks originating in India have relatively small global implications, but are very important for several South Asian economies. The third chapter investigates the role of monetary policy in the context of high and persistent food and fuel inflation. As the second-round effects on core inflation are large, in order to durably reduce inflation, monetary policy will need to maintain a tight stance for a prolonged period of time. In addition, progress on structural reforms to raise potential growth is critical to reduce the burden on monetary policy. The fourth chapter explores progress in poverty reduction and inclusive growth. Robust economic growth has been a major driver of poverty reduction and inclusiveness. Social expenditures, spending on education, and educational attainment rates are important for fostering inclusive growth; while macro-financial stability, with particular attention to inflation risks, is critical for sustaining inclusive growth. The fifth chapter explores the change in vulnerabilities of India's non-financial corporates which has taken place since the global financial crisis (GFC). Based on four commonly-used indicators of financial strength, vulnerabilities of India's corporate sector are found to be higher than at the trough of the GFC, and at their highest since the early 2000s. The sixth chapter examines the factors behind the recent investment slowdown in India. The results suggest that in addition to standard macro-financial variables, heightened uncertainty and deteriorating business confidence have played an important role. In contrast, the contribution of interest rates has been minor. The seventh chapter explores the likely impacts of product and labor market reforms. Analysis suggests that these reforms can increase employment, boost exports, and raise potential growth, thereby helping to harness India's demographic dividend. A package of reforms would reinforce the gains, minimize short-term costs, and increase the acceptability of these politically-difficult reforms"--Abstract |
| Notes |
"Prepared By Paul Cashin [and others]"--Page 2 of pdf |
|
"February 2014." |
|
"January 10, 2014"--Page 2 of pdf |
| Bibliography |
Includes bibliographical references |
| Notes |
Online resource; title from pdf title page (IMF Web site, viewed February 24, 2014) |
| Subject |
Balance of trade -- India
|
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Saving and investment -- India
|
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Inflation (Finance) -- India
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Economic development -- India
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Poverty -- India
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Balance of trade
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Economic development
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Inflation (Finance)
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International economic relations
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Poverty
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Saving and investment
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| SUBJECT |
India -- Foreign economic relations
|
| Subject |
India
|
| Form |
Electronic book
|
| Author |
Cashin, Paul.
|
|
International Monetary Fund.
|
| ISBN |
9781484309001 |
|
1484309006 |
|
9781475533224 |
|
1475533225 |
|
