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Book Cover
Author Tanaka, Graham Y.

Title Digital deflation : the productivity revolution and how it will ignite the economy / by Graham Tanaka
Published New York : McGraw-Hill, [2004]


Location Call no. Vol. Availability
 MELB  330.973 Tan/Ddt  AVAILABLE
Description xiv, 418 pages : illustrations ; 24 cm
Contents Machine derived contents note: Table Of Contents -- Dedication -- Preface -- Introduction -- CHAPTER 1M̮YSTERIES, PUZZLES & PARADOXES OF THE NEW ECONOMY -- Mysteries, Puzzles and Paradoxes of the New Economy -- Was the New Economy of the 9̆0s Real? -- Why Were the 1990s So Great? -- Too Much Optimism or Too Much Pessimism? -- Headed for Deflation Like Japan in the 9̆0s or the U.S. in the 3̆0s? -- Can the Future Be What It Used to Be? -- CHAPTER 2 ̮SOLVING THE MYSTERY: MISSING PRODUCTIVITY AND THE GREAT INFLATION MIS-MEASURE. -- Demographics: Baby Boomers, Working Women & the Super Bull Market -- Three Hits and a Miss -- Where¡s the Missing Productivity? -- Second Clue: The Boskin Reports on the CPI -- F̥aster, Better, Cheaper ̲͠ The Parable of the Pink Caddy -- The Intel-Microsoft Double Helix & John the Barber¡s PC -- The Consumer Knows Best -- How Government Counts Quality Improvement -- Solving the Mystery of the New Economy -- CHAPTER 3 ̮THE THEORY OF DIGITAL DEFLATION: F̥ASTER, BETTER, CHEAPER ̲-- Digital Deflation Is A Good Thing -- Digital Deflation Defined -- The Digital Drivers -- The N̥ext Big Thing ̲-- Is the Digital Revolution Better than the Industrial Revolution? -- The Laws of Digital Deflation -- How Big Is Digital Deflation? -- What¡s Missing from the GDP Deflator? -- The Lost Components -- CHAPTER 4 ̮WHY THE OLD MODELS DIDN¡T WORK IN THE 7̆0s & 8̆0s -- Economic Models Work Best in Times of Stability & Few Surprises -- The 1950s & 1960s Existing Economic Models Worked Well -- The Late 6̆0s/Early 7̆0s Models Break Down With the Rise in Inflation -- Internal Disruption from Wage-Price Controls -- External Disruption from OPEC Cartel Price Increases -- The Late 7̆0s Hyperinflation -- The Demise of the Keynesian Dynasty -- Monetarism Takes the Lead -- The 1980s Volcker to the Rescue -- The Early 8̆0s Enter the Supply-Siders -- The Late 8̆0s M̥arket Price Rule ̲Predictors -- Demographics Why the Traditional Models Didn¡t Work -- Demographic Forces Turn Positive in the 8̆0s & 9̆0s -- CHAPTER 5 ̮WHY ECONOMISTS HAVE DIFFICULTY EXPLAINING THE NEW ECONOMY OF THE 9̆0s -- The Amazing 1990s Strong Growth and Low Inflation -- Information Technology, Productivity and the N̥ew Economy ̲-- Overstated Inflation and Under-measured Productivity -- Was the Internet Driving the New Economy? -- Digital Deflation Why the Old Models Didn¡t Work in the 1990s -- Productivity from Digital Deflation Is About Quality, Not Quantity -- What the Government Didn¡t See ̉-- C̉onsumers and Investors Could See -- The Year 2000 Lockdown -- The W̥ealth Effect ̲͠ A Rising New Force in the New Economy -- A Corporate Wealth Effect? -- I̥nvestor-Consumers ̲-- New Models Needed -- CHAPTER 6 ̮DEFINING THE NEW ECONOMY -- What Is the New Economy? -- Digital Deflation Defines the New Economy -- Old Economy Companies in the New Economy -- The Importance of R&D -- The Old Economy Will Lose Share & Profits to the New Economy -- How the New Economy Lifts Productivity -- S̥tructural ̲Productivity Gains -- When Did the Government Start to Measure Digital Deflation? -- How Did Computer Quality Improvement Boost Productivity in the Late 9̆0s? -- Massive Implications For Productivity Across the Economy -- Software Quality Improvements Are Elusive But Real -- Communication Services Are Getting F̥aster, Better, Cheaper ̲-- The Huge Healthcare Quality Mismeasure -- The Service Sector Is Grossly Under-measured -- The Service Sector Food Chain -- Solving the Mystery of Rising Capital Spending & Declining Productivity -- The P̥roductivity Revolution ̲Is Underway -- Disaggregation Into the New Economy and the Old Economy -- CHAPTER 7 ̮NEW MODELS FOR THE NEW ECONOMY -- I. Demographic Models -- A Demographic Foundation for the New Economy -- The Demographic-Inflation Model -- The Demographic-Stock Market Model -- The Demographic-Productivity Model -- Demographic-Productivity Model Adjusted for Unmeasured Digital Deflation -- Demographic-GDP Models -- The Stock Market and Real GDP -- The Stock Market and Corporate Profits -- P̥otential Productivity ̲-- II. Productivity Models -- The Capital Spending-Productivity Model Revisited -- How Long Has the Government Under-measured Productivity? -- Productivity and Profit Margin Model -- The 120% Profit-Productivity Rule Of Thumb -- The Over 3.0% Productivity Growth Rule -- The New Economy Productivity-Profit Enigma -- Empty Calories? -- The Fed¡s Productivity & Capital Decomposition Model -- New Models for Predicting IT¡s Contribution to GDP and Productivity -- III. Digital Deflation Models -- Estimating the Under-measurement of Digital Deflation -- The G̥DP Deflator-Digital Deflation ̲Model -- The C̥PI-Digital Deflation ̲Model -- IV. Wealth Models -- Household Tangible and Net Financial Assets -- The W̥ealth Effect ̲-- The C̥onsumer Wealth Effect ̲-- The R̥ealized Capital Gains Wealth Effect ̲-- The C̥orporate Wealth Effect ̲-- CHAPTER 8 ̮THE WEALTH IN OUR FUTURE -- 2020 Vision -- A Wide Range of Possible Outcomes -- Value Created from Digitally-Driven Quality Improvement -- Two More Decades of Value Creation -- Value To Wealth: The New Economy¡s Virtuous Circle -- Measuring Wealth -- Adjusting Wealth for Digital Deflation -- A Strong Demographic Foundation for Generating Wealth -- The Digital Deflation Wealth Multipliers -- The Key to Wealth Is Low Inflation -- A N̥ear Zero ̲Experience -- Picturing Zero Inflation Will Be Difficult for Many -- The GDP Deflator Adjusted for Digital Deflation -- The CPI Adjusted for Digital Deflation -- Why the CPI and GDP Deflator Will Diverge -- Which Is the Right Inflation Rate? -- Four Scenarios for the Wealth In Our Future -- Fair Value P/E¡s and Wealth -- CHAPTER 9T̮HE NEW ECONOMY STOCK MARKET -- The Importance of Equities -- A N̥ew Economy Stock Market Model ̲-- Inflation, Interest Rates & Fair Value P/E¡s -- P/E Ratio Forecasts for the Next Two Decades -- Higher Productivity & Profit Margins in the Next Two Decades -- New Economy Stock Market Projections -- Two More Decades of Wealth Creation -- A New Economy Wealth Model -- Growth In E̥quity-Like ̲Assets -- How Digital Deflation Helps Homeowners Build Wealth -- Digital Deflation Helps Tangible Assets By Driving Interest Rates Lower -- The Enormous Upside Potential for Wealth Creation in the United States -- On the Upside -- On the Downside -- Most Likely Scenario -- The Surprising Importance of the Real Bond Rate -- Stocks, Wealth & the New Economy -- CHAPTER 10M̮ONETARY POLICY: NEW S̥PEED LIMITS ̲FOR THE FED -- The Fed¡s Challenge -- A Tale of Two Economies -- Avoiding a Repeat of the 1920s and 3̆0s -- Learning from the 1920s and 3̆0s -- Counting Quality Improvement Will Make the Fed¡s Job Easier -- New Speed Limits for the Fed -- Running Out of Room at the Fed -- Lessons from Japan¡s Deflationary Slump -- Productivity Gains in a Deflationary Economy -- The Past and Future Fed -- CHAPTER 11 ̮FISCAL POLICY AND BETTER DATA IN A DIGITALLY DEFLATING WORLD -- Wealth & Poverty in the New Economy -- Wage Earners Will Earn More -- The New Economy, Unemployment and Crime -- The P̥olitics Of Need ̲-- Better Data for the New Economy -- The New Economy & Budget Surpluses -- The Darkside of Demographics -- CHAPTER 12W̮ISE INVESTING IN THE NEW ECONOMY -- Real World Investing -- Real World Results -- Did the Internet Boom Spike the Punch? -- Investing Wisely in the New Economy -- The Prelude to a New Era of Prosperity -- CHAPTER 13D̮IGITAL DEMOCRACY: GLOBALIZATION OF NEW ECONOMY -- New Economy Entrepreneurship -- Digital Democracy -- Counting Digital Deflation & Productivity Properly -- Japan and China Can Create Enormous Wealth -- Europe Must Recognize Digital Deflation to Optimize It -- Cowboy Capitalism and Wealth Creation -- The Soviet Experiment -- Digital Deflation and the Dollar -- Global Prosperity Will Lift All Boats -- CHAPTER 14T̮HREATS AND OPPORTUNIES: MAKING THE WORLD A BETTER PLACE -- Making the Digital Revolution Better than the Industrial Revolution -- The Politics of Better Data -- Fixing the Third Rail -- Better Healthcare from Better Data -- Moving Faster with the Fed -- How Much Does the Fed Know? -- One Foot on the Brakes & One Foot on the Gas -- Capital, Labor & Technology -- Managing Booms and Bubbles -- Quality Improvement and Degradation -- Making the World a Better Place -- EPILOGUE C̥LOSER TO DEFLATION THAN YOU THINK ̲-- FIRESIDE CHAT EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEWS WITH CREATORS OF DIGITAL DEFLATION -- Gordon Moore, Intel -- Richard Hill, Novellus -- Doug J. Dunn, ASML -- Michael Dell, Dell Computer -- Irwin Jacobs, Qualcomm -- Stephen P.A. Fodor, Affymetrix -- Appendix -- References -- Acknowledgements
Bibliography Includes bibliographical references
Subject Technological innovations -- Economic aspects -- United States.
Industrial productivity -- Effect of technological innovations on -- United States.
Digital divide -- Economic aspects -- United States.
Deflation (Finance) -- United States.
United States -- Economic policy -- 2001-2009.
LC no. 2003012929
ISBN 0071376178 hardcover alkaline paper