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Author Berg, Andrew

Title Are currency crises predictable? : a test / prepared by Andrew Berg and Catherine Pattillo
Published [Washington, D.C.] : International Monetary Fund, Research Department, ©1998

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Description 1 online resource (61 pages) : illustrations
Series IMF working paper ; WP/98/154
IMF working paper ; WP/98/154.
Summary Annotation This paper evaluates three models for predicting currency crises that were proposed before 1997. the idea is to answer the question: if we had been using these models in late 1996, how well armed would we have been to predict the Asian crisis? the results are mixed but somewhat encouraging. One model, and our modifications to it, provide useful forecasts, at least compared with a naive benchmark. the head-to-head comparison also sheds light on the economics of currency crises, the nature of the Asian crisis, and issues in the empirical modeling of currency crises
Bibliography Includes bibliographical references (pages 60-61)
Notes Master and use copy. Digital master created according to Benchmark for Faithful Digital Reproductions of Monographs and Serials, Version 1. Digital Library Federation, December 2002. http://purl.oclc.org/DLF/benchrepro0212 MiAaHDL
digitized 2010 HathiTrust Digital Library committed to preserve pda MiAaHDL
Print version record
Subject Devaluation of currency -- Forecasting -- Mathematical models
Financial crises -- Forecasting -- Mathematical models
Prediction theory -- Mathematical models
Prediction theory -- Mathematical models.
Form Electronic book
Author Pattillo, Catherine A. (Catherine Anne)
International Monetary Fund. Research Department.