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Title Uruguay : staff report for the 2013 Article IV consultation
Published Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, [2014]
©2014
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Description 1 online resource (78 pages) : color illustrations
Series IMF country report ; no. 14/6
IMF country report ; no. 14/6
Contents Cover; CONTENTS; OVERVIEW; RECENT DEVELOPMENTS; A. Real Developments; B. Policy Actions; OUTLOOK AND RISKS; POLICY DISCUSSIONS; STAFF APPRAISAL; BOXES; 1. Social Policies for Inclusive Growth; 2. Capital Flow Management Measures; 3. Assessment of Balance of Payments Stability; 4. Public Debt Management Operations; 5. FSAP Update 2012 -- Key Recommendations; 6. New Legislation on Large-Scale Mining; FIGURES; 1. Post-2002 Recovery; 2. Economic Activity; 3. Inflation; 4. External Accounts; 5. Credit and Banking; 6. Monetary Developments; 7. Fiscal Developments and Projections; TABLES
1. Selected Economic Indicators2. Main Fiscal Aggregates; 3. Public Sector Debt and Assets; 4. Statement of Operations of the Central Government; 5. Central Government Stock Positions; 6. Summary Accounts of the Banking System; 7. Balance of Payments and External Sector Indicators; ANNEXES; I. Is the Uruguayan Economy Decoupling from its Neighbors? An Empirical Analysis of Inward Spillovers to Uruguay; II. Public Sector Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA); III. External Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA); CONTENTS; FUND RELATIONS; RELATIONS WITH THE WORLD BANK UNDER JMAP
Summary "Background: Uruguay has experienced a decade of strong and inclusive expansion since its 2002 crisis, thanks to important institutional reforms, large-scale FDI projects attracted by Uruguay's stable macroeconomic environment and business-friendly investment climate, and favorable external conditions. Current setting: Growth has moderated to a more sustainable pace since 2012, mostly owing to weaker external demand from regional trading partners with which Uruguay is highly interconnected. Unemployment remains near historical lows, fiscal policy has loosened, and inflation persists above the target. Monetary policy, on the other hand, has tightened considerably since August. The baseline scenario is for the output gap to close gradually. Near-term risks are mostly to the downside, but vulnerabilities are limited given the strong liquidity buffers of the public sector. Focus: Discussions focused on policies to support a smooth convergence of output to potential in the near term; the optimal policy response in case of inward spillovers; and requirements to bolster the medium-term outlook. Policies: Staff supported the authorities' objective of gradually reducing inflation. Additional efforts to communicate the targeted monetary policy stance would help smooth the volatility in short-term interest rates and enhance the central bank's control over inflation expectations. A tighter fiscal policy stance and a moderation in wage growth would support monetary policy in taming inflation. In case of adverse external shocks, the exchange rate should be the main shock absorber and the ample liquidity buffers could be used to smooth out excessive volatility. Staff recommended that the reserve requirements on non-residents' purchases of central bank and government securities be unwound once there is clear evidence that the capital inflow surge has subsided. Uruguay's medium-term growth would benefit from more flexible wage determination and deeper financial markets. It is critical to press on with efforts to boost infrastructure. Past advice: There is broad agreement between the authorities and staff on the macroeconomic policy priorities. In recent consultations the Fund has placed greater emphasis on reducing inflation to the mid-point of the target range and called for fiscal restraint, in part to help monetary policy. In addition, staff has encouraged prudent wage growth to facilitate disinflation, safeguard competitiveness, and promote macroeconomic flexibility. Recently, the authorities tightened monetary policy and issued new wage setting guidelines aimed at restraining the growth of real wages and reducing the use of backward-indexation"--Abstract
Notes "January 2014."
"October 27, 2013"--Page 2 of pdf
Title from PDF title page (IMF Web site, viewed Jan. 13, 2014)
Bibliography Includes bibliographical references (page 51)
Subject International Monetary Fund -- Uruguay.
Economic development -- Uruguay.
Economic forecasting -- Uruguay.
Economic indicators -- Uruguay.
Risk -- Uruguay.
Uruguay -- Economic policy.
Form Electronic book
Author International Monetary Fund.
ISBN 1484341546 (e-book)
9781484341544 (e-book)