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Author Connable, Ben, author

Title From negative to positive stability : how the Syrian refugee crisis can improve Jordan's outlook / by Ben Connable
Published Santa Monica, Calif. : RAND, [2015]
©2015
Online access available from:
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Description 1 online resource (xi, 60 pages) : color maps
Series Research Report ; RR-1069-MCIA
Research report (Rand Corporation) ; RR-1069-MCIA
Contents Ch. 1. Introduction to the status of Syrian refugees as of late 2014 -- ch. 2. Assessment of stability and strategic challenges: late 2014 -- ch. 3. Economic factors and forecasted impact -- ch. 4. Social factors and forecasted impact -- ch. 5. Security assessment and forecasted impact -- ch. 6. Conclusion, summary forecast, and black swan warnings
Preface -- Figures and Table -- Summary -- Chapter One: Introduction to the Status of Syrian Refugees as of Late 2014: Geographic Orientation and Syrian Refugees as of Late 2014 -- Syrian Refugees in Jordan: Late 2014 -- Methodology -- Organization of This Report -- Chapter Two: Assessment of Stability and Strategic Challenges: Late 2014: Jordan's Stability as of Late 2014 -- Security from External and Internal Threats -- Political Turmoil and the Impact of the Arab Spring -- Water Shortages Contribute to Economic and Social Unease -- Economic and Financial Dependencies -- Existing Refugee and Nonnational Worker Populations -- Summary of Stability Issues as of Late 2014 -- Chapter Three: Economic Factors and Forecasted Impact: Current Economic Status and Economic Integration of Syrian Refugees -- Forecast: The Impact of Syrian Refugees on Jordan's Economic Stability -- Chapter Four: Social Factors and Forecasted Impact: Assessing Late-2014 Social Integration and Social Impacts of Syrian Refugees -- Forecast: Impact of Syrian Refugees on Jordan's Social Stability -- Chapter Five: Security Assessment and Forecasted Impact: Impact of Syrian Refugees on Jordanian Security as of Late 2014 -- Forecast: The Impact of Syrian Refugees on Jordan's Security -- Chapter Six: Conclusion, Summary Forecast, and Black Swan Warnings: Black Swans -- Abbreviations -- Bibliography
Summary "As of late 2014, many American and Jordanian experts believe Jordan to be stable. Yet while Jordan is stable, it faces a range of existing and emerging challenges. These include chronic unemployment, sporadic political unrest, budget deficits, a water shortage, and geographically isolated yet troubling internal security concerns. The Syrian refugee crisis both exacerbates these challenges and offers opportunities to the government of Jordan. If the Syrian refugees remain relatively content and continue to assimilate into northern and central Jordan, they might directly benefit the Jordanian economy by stimulating growth. Donors and lenders have increased their support to Jordan, in turn offering the government an opportunity to improve the lives of both Syrian refugees and Jordanian citizens. Most important, Jordan benefits from what one expert terms negative stability: Jordanian citizens might be dissatisfied with many aspects of their government, but the chaos in neighboring states has thus far dissuaded Jordanians from pursuing civil or violent actions that might destabilize Jordan. Jordanians do not want their country to look like Syria, Iraq, or Egypt. Jordan is likely to undergo further and perhaps unforeseen challenges in 2015 and 2016, but it has the opportunity to alleviate many of its enduring challenges. If Jordan wisely invests forthcoming international refugee support, it has the opportunity to shift popular outlook from negative to positive--and more optimistic--stability. This report's analytic forecasts should help the United States determine how to support Jordan as it faces the Syrian refugee crisis"--Publisher's description
Notes "November 30, 2015"--Table of contents page
Bibliography Includes bibliographical references (pages 39-60)
Notes Online resource; title from PDF title page (RAND, viewed December 2, 2015)
Subject Emigration and immigration law -- Jordan.
Forced migration -- Syria.
Humanitarian assistance -- Jordan.
International relief -- Jordan.
National security -- Jordan -- 21st century.
Refugees -- Syria.
Jordan -- Economic conditions -- 21st century.
Jordan -- Social conditions -- 21st century.
Syria -- History -- Civil War, 2011-
Genre/Form History.
Form Electronic book
Author Rand Corporation, issuing body
LC no. 2015957982
ISBN 0833093479 (electronic bk)
9780833093479 (electronic bk)
Other Titles How the Syrian refugee crisis can improve Jordan's outlook