Limit search to available items
Book Cover
E-book
Author Zeng, Yi, 1952- author

Title Household and living arrangement projections : the extended cohort-compound method and applications to the U.S. and China / Yi Zeng, Kenneth C. Land, Danan Gu, Zhenglian Wang
Published Dordrecht : Springer, [2014]
©2014
Table of Contents
1.Introduction1
1.1.Definitions of Family and Household2
1.2.Why Project Household and Living Arrangements?2
1.2.1.Household Projections, Socioeconomic Planning and Policy Analysis2
1.2.2.Household Projections and Consumption Market Analysis4
1.2.3.A Tool for Development of Demographic Theories4
1.3.Why Do Household Projections Need to Use Demographic Rates as Input?6
1.3.1.Demographic Change and Family Household Dynamics6
1.3.2.Demographic Change, Elderly Living Arrangements, and Care Needs and Costs7
1.3.3.Demographic Changes and Living Arrangements of Children8
1.3.4.Demographic Changes and Family Life Course of Adults, Especially Single Mothers9
1.4.A Brief Review of Methodological Approaches for Household Projections and Simulations10
1.4.1.Headship Rate10
1.4.2.Micro-Simulation Models11
1.4.3.Macro-Simulation Models12
1.5.Concluding Remarks15
pt. I Methodology, Data, and Assessments 
2.ProFamy: The Extended Cohort-Component Method for Household and Living Arrangement Projections19
2.1.Units of Analysis and Demographic Status Identification19
2.2.Core Ideas of the ProFamy Extended Cohort-Component Model21
2.2.1.Core Idea 1: A Multi-State Accounting Model22
2.2.2.Core Idea 2: Distinguishing Continuously Occurring from Periodic Demographic Accounting Processes26
2.2.3.Core Idea 3: A Judicious Use of Independence Assumptions27
2.2.4.Core Idea 4: Employing the National Age-Sex-Specific Model Standard Schedules and the Summary Parameters at the Sub-National Level28
2.3.The Demographic Accounting Equations31
2.4.Projecting Households and All Individuals of the Entire Population Simultaneously36
2.5.Consistencies in the Two-Sex and Multi-Generation Model37
2.5.1.Consistency Between Males and Females37
2.5.2.Consistency Between Children and Parents38
2.5.3.Consistency Between Births Calculated for the Female and Male Populations39
2.5.4.Consistency Between Females' and Males' Status of Co-residence with Children Before and After Divorce (or Dissolution of Cohabitation) or Remarriage39
Appendix 1 Procedure to Correct the Inaccurate Accounting of Household Size Distribution Due to the Lack of Capacity to Identify the Reference Person's Co-residence Status with Other Relatives or Non-relatives41
Appendix 2 A procedure to Meet the Requirement that Other Relatives and Non-relatives Cannot Be Reference Persons of the Household42
Appendix 3 Parity Transition Probabilities in the 1st and 2nd Half of the Year43
Appendix 4 Procedures for Estimating Transition Probabilities of Status of Co-residence with Parents44
Appendix 5 Procedures for Estimation of Probabilities of Change in Number of Children Living Together47
3.Data Needs and Estimation Procedures49
3.1.Data Needed49
3.2.Estimation and Projections of Age-Sex-Specific Demographic Rates53
3.3.Pooling Data from Multiple Surveys to Estimate the Age-Sex-Status-Specific Standard Schedules: Rationale and Justification54
3.4.Estimation of Demographic Summary Measures55
Appendix 1 Procedures to Ensure the Accuracy of the Base Population for the Projections57
Appendix 2 Standardized General Rates of Marriage/Union Formation and Dissolution59
Appendix 3 Procedure to Estimate Proportions of Those Aged 40-44 in Year t Who Do Not Live with Parents and Proportions of Elders Aged x in Year t Living with Adult Children), While Taking into Account the Effects of Large Changes in Fertility61
Appendix 4 Procedure to Calculate Sex-Age-Specific Rates While Ensuring the Consistency of the Two-Sex Constraints and the Projected Standardized General Rates of Marriage/Union Formation and Dissolution64
Appendix 5 Procedure to Estimate General Rates of Marriage/Union Formation and Dissolution at the Starting Year of the Projections70
4.Empirical Assessments and a Comparison with the Headship Rate Method73
4.1.Empirical Assessments: Comparisons of Projections and Census Enumerations at the National and Sub-National Levels73
4.2.A Comparison Between the Classic Headship Rate Method and the ProFamy Extended Cohort-Component Approach80
4.2.1.Conceptual Issues80
4.2.2.Linkage with Demographic Rates80
4.2.3.Cross-Sectional Extrapolations Versus Cohort-by-Cohort Projections81
4.2.4.Household Members Other than Heads81
4.2.5.Information Produced and Adequacy for Planning81
4.2.6.Methodology83
4.2.7.Data Requirements, Time and Resource Costs84
4.3.A Comparison of Housing Demand Forecast Errors Between the Headship Rate Method and the ProFamy Extended Cohort-Component Approach86
Appendix 1 Procedures to Project Housing Demands Based on Household Projections Employing the Headship Rate Method or the ProFamy Approach88
5.Extension of ProFamy Model to Project Elderly Disability Status and Home-Based Care Costs, with an Illustrative Application91
5.1.Introduction91
5.2.The Further Extended ProFamy Method Including Projections of Elderly Disability and Home-Based Care Costs93
5.3.An Illustrative Application to China95
5.3.1.Data Sources and Estimates95
5.3.2.Scenario Design and Parameters97
5.3.3.Results100
5.4.Concluding Remarks107
6.Household and Living Arrangement Projections at the Small Area Level109
6.1.Basic Concepts to Apply the ProFamy Approach in Combination with Ratio Methods for Small Areas109
6.2.The Constant-Share and Shift-Share Ratio Methods111
6.3.Empirical Assessment and Illustrative Applications112
7.A Simple Method for Projecting Pension Deficit Rates and an Illustrative Application115
7.1.Introduction115
7.2.The Method116
7.3.Illustrative Application to China118
7.3.1.The Pension System in China118
7.3.2.Assumptions of Parameters for Different Scenarios120
7.3.3.The Results125
7.4.Discussion127
7.5.Concluding Remarks129
Appendix 1 Derivation of the Simple Method130
pt. II Applications in the United States 
8.U.S. Family Household Momentum and Dynamics: Projections at the National Level135
8.1.Data and Estimates135
8.2.Medium Projections138
8.3.Family Household Momentum140
8.4.Low and High Bounds of Household and Living Arrangement Projections141
8.5.Racial Differentials in Dynamics of Households and Living Arrangements143
8.6.Concluding Remarks145
Appendix 1 A Procedure to Adjust the o/e Rates of Marital/Cohabiting Union Status Transitions Based on the NSFH and NSFG Data to Be Consistent with the o/e Rates of Marital Status Transitions Based on the CPS, SIPP, NSFH, and NSFG Data146
Appendix 2 Comparisons of Summary Measures of Marital Status Life Tables (Excluding Cohabitation) Between Our Estimates Based on the Pooled Survey Data and Schoen's Estimates Based on Vital Statistics, All Races Combined148
Appendix 3 Major Parameters of Medium Forecasts, Smaller and Larger Family Household Scenarios149
9.Household and Living Arrangement Projections for the 50 States, Washington DC, and Relatively Large Counties in the U.S.151
9.1.Data and Parameter Assumptions151
9.2.Low and High Bounds of Household and Living Arrangement Projections152
9.3.Summary of Projection Outcomes154
9.4.Discussion and Concluding Remarks156
Appendix 1 Information About Population Sizes of the 50 States, DC, the Six Counties of SC, and the M-S Area157
Appendix 2 Output of Household and Living Arrangement Projections, U.S. Sub-National Level158
10.Effects of Changes in Household Structure and Living Arrangements on Future Home-Based Care Costs for Disabled Elders in the United States167
10.1.Introduction167
10.2.Data Sources and Parameter Estimates and Assumptions170
10.2.1.Demographic Age-Sex-Specific Standard Schedules and Summary Parameters170
10.2.2.Estimates of Disability and Home-Based Care Cost Parameters171
10.3.Results172
10.3.1.A Substantial Increase in Number of Disabled Elders and Remarkable Acceleration After 2020, Especially for the Oldest-Old173
10.3.2.The Increase in Home-Based Care Costs for Disabled Elders Will Dramatically Accelerate After 2020, Especially for the Disabled Oldest-Old178
10.3.3.Gender Differentials179
10.3.4.Racial Differentials180
10.3.5.High and Low Bounds of Home-Based Care Costs182
10.4.Concluding Remarks182
Appendix 1 The Estimated and Assumed Demographic Summary Measures in the Baseline and Future Years for the United States185
Appendix 2 A Two-Step Procedure to Estimate Age-Sex-Race-Living Arrangement-Disability Status-Specific Care Hours and Care Costs Per Elder186
Appendix 3 Age-Sex-Race-Living Arrangement-Specific Disability Rates, Home-Based Care Hours, and Care Costs ($), Based on Data from NLTCS 1999 Wave, the United States187
11.Projections of Household Vehicle Consumption in the United States189
11.1.Introduction189
11.2.Data Sources and Model Specification to Account for Regional, Income, and Racial Differentials190
11.3.Estimation of Household Vehicle Ownership Rates by Household Characteristics, Race, and Region191
11.4.Results of Household Vehicle Consumption Forecasts194
11.4.1.Household Projection Outcome194
11.4.2.Validation Tests: A Comparison Between Our Projected Numbers and Official Statistics on Number of Home-Use Passenger Cars, 2000--2009196
11.4.3.A General Description of the Forecasts197
11.4.4.Forecast by Age and Race of Householders197
11.4.5.Forecast by Type, Size and Income of Households200
11.4.6.Forecast by Region201
11.5.Conclusion and Discussion203
Appendix 1 The Four Regions Defined By the US Census Bureau205
Appendix 2 Consistency Examination Across the Four Regions205
Appendix 3 Consistency Examination for Percentile Distribution of Income Categories205
pt. III Applications in China 
12.Household and Living Arrangement Projections in China at the National Level211
12.1.Introduction211
12.2.Data and Estimates212
12.3.Profile of Future Trends214
12.3.1.Rapid Population Aging214
12.3.2.Projection of Family Household Structure and Size217
12.3.3.Proportion of Elderly Who Live in Empty-Nest Households219
12.3.4.Dependency Ratios220
12.4.Summary and Concluding Remarks222
13.Dynamics of Households and Living Arrangements in the Eastern, Middle, and Western Regions of China225
13.1.Introduction225
13.2.Method, Data Sources, and Parameter Assumptions225
13.3.Results of the Comparative Regional Projections228
13.3.1.The Middle Region Will Face the Most Serious Challenges of Population and Household Aging228
13.3.2.Population and Household Aging Will Be More than 1.5 Times or Twice as Severe in Rural Areas Compared to Urban Areas in the Middle and Eastern Regions232
13.4.Discussion and Policy Considerations234
Appendix 1 Parameters of Population and Household Projection at the Regional Level236
14.Application of Household and Living Arrangement Projections to Policy Analysis in China237
14.1.Introduction237
14.2.A Brief Review of Related Policy Research and Debates on Fertility Policy Transition Options in China238
14.3.The Data Sources, Policy Scenario Designs, and Parameter Assumptions240
14.4.Comparative Analysis Under Different Fertility Policy Scenarios243
14.4.1.Population Growth243
14.4.2.Percentage of Elderly and Elderly Living in Empty-Nest Households244
14.4.3.Labor Force and the Elderly Dependency Ratio245
14.4.4.Resources of Care Providers for Disabled Elderly248
14.4.5.Sex Ratio at Birth and Marriage Squeeze249
14.4.6.Socioeconomic Costs and Human Capital251
14.4.7.The "Two-Child Solely for Only-Child Couples" Is a Very Poor Policy Option253
14.5.Challenges and Opportunities Associated with Retirement Age and Rural Old Age Insurance Program254
14.6.Policy Recommendations256
14.6.1.Transfer to the Two-Child Policy with Adequate Spacing Fertility Policy as Soon as Possible256
14.6.2.Gradually Increase Age at Retirement258
14.6.3.Further Develop the Rural Old Age Insurance Program259
14.7.Concluding Remarks259
15.Household Housing Demand Projections for Hebei Province of China263
15.1.Introduction263
15.2.Method, Data, and Input Parameter Estimates264
15.2.1.The Method264
15.2.2.Data Sources, Estimates, and Parameter Assumptions265
15.3.Results and Discussion268
15.3.1.A Brief Outline of the Current Household Housing Situation268
15.3.2.General Trends of Household and Population Dynamics269
15.3.3.General Trends of Owned and Rental Housing Demands270
15.3.4.Housing Demand By Rural and Urban Residence274
15.3.5.The Aging of Housing Demand275
15.3.6.Housing Demand By Household Type275
15.4.Summary and Relevant Policy Considerations276
15.5.Concluding Remarks277
pt. IV ProFamy: A Software for Household and Consumption Forecasting 
16.Setting Up the Projection Model283
16.1.Main menu283
16.2.Create, Open and Save ProFamy Files284
16.3.Specify Models and Data Types286
17.Preparing Input Data, Computing, and Managing Output297
17.1.How to Prepare Input Data of the Base Population297
17.1.1.Format and Variable Definitions for the Input File of Base Population298
17.1.2.How to Run BasePop302
17.2.How to Prepare the Input Data for Standard Schedules304
17.2.1.Input Data Sheets305
17.2.2.Standard Schedules of Mortality307
17.2.3.Standard Schedules of Marriage/Union Formation and Dissolution307
17.2.4.Standard Schedules of Fertility308
17.2.5.Standard Schedules of Leaving the Parental Home311
17.2.6.Standard Schedules of Migration312
17.3.How to Prepare the Summary Measures314
17.4.How to Prepare Input Data for the Total Population (100 % Tabulation) By Age, Sex and Marital Status316
17.5.Input Data for the Total Institutional Population (100 % Tabulation) By Age and Sex317
17.6.How to Run "Computation of the Projection"318
17.7.How to View and Manage the Results319
18.Epilogue: Summary and Future Perspectives323
18.1.Methodological Core Ideas and Empirical Assessments of the ProFamy Extended Cohort-Component Approach and Comparisons with the Classic Headship Rate Method323
18.2.Extensions of the ProFamy Model to Project Elderly Disability Status, Home-Based Care Costs, and Pension Deficit Rates, with Illustrative Applications325
18.3.Household and Living Arrangement Projections at the Small Area Level326
18.4.Applications to the United States326
18.5.Applications to China328
18.6.User's Guide of the ProFamy Software for Household and Consumption Forecasting329
18.7.Limitations and Future Research Perspectives330
 References333
 Index351
Online access available from:
Springer eBooks    View Resource Record  

Copies

Description 1 online resource (xxix, 357 pages) : illustrations (some color)
Series The Springer series on demographic methods and population analysis ; 36
Springer series on demographic methods and population analysis ; 36. 1389-6784
Contents 1. Introduction -- PART I. METHODOLOGY, DATA, AND ASSESSMENTS -- 2. ProFamy: The Extended Cohort-Component Method for Household and Living Arrangement Projections -- 3. Data Needs and Estimation Procedures -- 4. Empirical Assessments and a Comparison with the Headship Rate Method -- 5. Extension of ProFamy Model to Project Elderly Disability Status and Home-Based Care Costs, with an Illustrative Application -- 6. Household and Living Arrangement Projections at the Small Area Level -- 7. A Simple Method for Projecting Pension Deficit Rates and an Illustrative Application
PART II. APPLICATIONS IN THE UNITED STATES -- 8. U.S. Family Household Momentum and Dynamics: Projections at the National Level -- 9. Household and Living Arrangement Projections for the 50 States, Washington DC, and Relatively Large Counties in the U.S. -- 10. Effects of Changes in Household Structure and Living Arrangements on Future Home-Based Care Costs for Disabled Elders in the United States -- 11. Projections of Household Vehicle Consumption in the United States
PART III. APPLICATIONS IN CHINA -- 12. Household and Living Arrangement Projections in China at the National Level -- 13. Dynamics of Households and Living Arrangements in the Eastern, Middle, and Western Regions of China -- 14. Application of Household and Living Arrangement Projections to Policy Analysis in China -- 15. Household Housing Demand Projections for Hebei Province of China
PART IV. PROFAMY: A SOFTWARE FOR HOUSEHOLD AND CONSUMPTION FORECASTING -- 16. Setting Up the Projection Model -- 17. Preparing Input Data, Computing, and Managing Output -- 18. Epilogue: Summary and Future Perspectives
Summary "This book presents an innovative demographic toolkit known as the ProFamy extended cohort-component method for the projection of household structures and living arrangements with empirical applications to the United States, the largest developed country, and China, the largest developing country. The ProFamy method uses demographic rates as inputs to project detailed distributions of household types and sizes, living arrangements of all household members, and population by age, sex, race/ethnicity, and urban/rural residence at national, sub-national, or small area levels. It can also project elderly care needs and costs, pension deficits, and household consumption. The ProFamy method presented herein has substantial merits compared to the traditional headship rate method, which is not linked to demographic rates and projects limited household types without other household members than 'heads'. The book consists of four parts. The first part presents the methodology, data, estimation issues, and empirical assessments. The next parts present applications in the United States (part two) and China (part three), concerning demographic, social, economic, and business research; policy analysis, including forecasting future trends of household type/size, elderly living arrangements, disability, and home-based care costs, and household consumption including housing and vehicles. The fourth part includes a user's guide for the ProFamy software to project households, living arrangements, and home-based consumptions. This book offers an invaluable toolkit for researchers, analysts and students in academic, public and private businesses, whose work is related to levels and rates of change in households, population and consumption patterns."--Publisher's description
Bibliography Includes bibliographical references (pages 333-349) and index
Subject Population forecasting.
Households -- Economic aspects -- United States -- Forecasting.
Households -- Economic aspects -- China -- Forecasting.
Consumption (Economics) -- United States -- Forecasting.
Consumption (Economics) -- China -- Forecasting.
Form Electronic book
Author Land, Kenneth C., author
Gu, Danan, author
Wang, Zhenglian (Population researcher), author
ISBN 9048189063 (electronic bk.)
9789048189069 (electronic bk.)
(print)
(print)