| Description |
1 online resource (19 pages) : color illustrations |
| Series |
IMF Country Reports ; no. 14/176 |
|
IMF country report ; no. 14/176.
|
| Contents |
Cover; CONTENTS; POTENTIAL OUTPUT AND THE OUTPUT GAP IN RUSSIA; A. Introduction; B. Pros, Cons, and Pitfalls when Estimating Potential Output; C. Potential Output and Output Gap Estimations for Russia; D. Observable Indicators and a Probabilistic Approach; FIGURES; 1. Output Gap; 2. Real Sector Indicators; 3. Capacity Utilization and Labor Market Indicators; 4. Output Gap in Russia; 5. Trend Volatility; 6. Potential Growth; E. Conclusion; 7. Population Dynamics and Trading Partner's Growth; APPENDIX; REFERENCES |
| Summary |
This Selected Issues paper estimates potential output and the output gap in Russia. Estimating potential output in Russia is difficult because its economy is large and complex, in transition, and dependent on oil. First, Russia presents large territorial and sectoral heterogeneity. Second, structural issues are difficult to estimate in transition economies. Third, the energy sector dominates exports and GDP, making Russia vulnerable to large terms of trade shocks. This paper estimates potential output taking into account these challenges and using a variety of methodologies. The results obtained show that the output gap in Russia exhibits high uncertainty |
| Notes |
"July 2014." |
|
"June 12, 2014"--Page 2 of pdf |
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"Prepared by Agustin Roitman"--Page 2 of pdf |
|
"Russia's trend growth is volatile. The transition from a centrally planned to a market economy started in 1991, hence time series are relatively short compared to other countries. The size and depth of structural reforms during the 1990's, the financial crisis and default in 1998, followed by the oil boom in the 2000's, and subsequent GFC, make identification of a stable "long run" growth trend a very hard task. Hence, it is complicated to pin down an accurate estimate of potential growth and the output gap"--Abstract |
| Bibliography |
Includes bibliographical references (pages 17-18) |
| Notes |
Online resource; title from pdf title page (IMF Web site, viewed July 7, 2014) |
| Subject |
International Monetary Fund -- Russia (Federation)
|
| SUBJECT |
International Monetary Fund fast |
| Subject |
Economic development -- Russia (Federation)
|
|
Gross domestic product -- Russia (Federation)
|
|
Input-output analysis -- Russia (Federation)
|
|
Economic development
|
|
Gross domestic product
|
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Input-output analysis
|
|
Russia (Federation)
|
| Form |
Electronic book
|
| Author |
International Monetary Fund, issuing body.
|
| ISBN |
1498336760 |
|
1498358810 |
|
1513594885 |
|
9781498336765 |
|
9781498358811 |
|
9781513594880 |
|
