Title The fallout of war : the regional consequences of the conflict in Syria / prepared by a multidisciplinary team led by Harun Onder (lead author and Senior Economist) and Haneen Sayed (Lead Social Protection and Jobs Specialist)

Published Washington, DC : World Bank Group, [2020]

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Description 1 online resource (xiii, 222 pages) : color illustrations, color maps Contents Front Cover -- Contents -- Acknowledgments -- Abbreviations -- Key Messages -- Overview -- Analytical strategy -- The nature of the impact -- The preconditions of the fallout -- Looking ahead: A tale of two futures -- Notes -- References -- 1. Prelude -- Mashreq: A timeline retrospective -- Measuring the impact: Methodological issues -- The analytical strategy of this study -- Notes -- References -- 2. The Mechanisms of the Fallout -- Exposure to shocks -- Institutional resilience -- Notes -- References -- 3. A Survey of the Outcomes -- Macroeconomic trends -- Fiscal trends Labor market trends -- Poverty trends -- Access to public services and infrastructure -- Environmental trends -- Notes -- References -- 4. Unraveling the Nature of the Impact -- The impact on GDP -- Drivers of the GDP impact -- Distributional implications of the GDP impact -- Fiscal implications of the GDP impact -- Discussion -- Notes -- References -- 5. The Aftermath: A Tale of Two Futures -- The fallout prospects -- A unilateral approach -- A regional approach for a better equilibrium -- A deus ex machina for the Mashreq theater? -- Notes -- References -- Appendixes A. Data Sources for Chapter 2 -- B. Estimating the Impact of the Syrian Conflict on Capital Flows -- C. Technical Notes for Chapter 4 -- Boxes -- Box 4.1. Estimations based on the synthetic control method -- Box 5.1. Regionalism, conflict, and public services -- Box 5.2. Digital infrastructure outlook -- Box 5.3. Regionalism across three historical periods in the Mashreq -- Figures -- Figure O.1. Analytical strategy -- Figure O.2. Technical strategy for analyzing the impact -- Figure O.3. GDP growth rate comparison, 2000-10 versus actual 2010-18 versus counterfactual 2010-18 Figure O.4. GDP growth gains in selected Mashreq countries from security and service restoration in the Syrian Arab Republic -- Figure 1.1. Timeline of key events -- Figure 1.2. Growth and external receipts in Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, middle-income countries, and MENA countries -- Figure 1.3. Analytical strategy -- Figure 1.4. Technical strategy for analyzing the impact -- Figure 2.1. Shares of Syrian refugees, by governorate in Iraq, 2012-19 -- Figure 2.2. Population distribution in Iraq, Jordan, and Lebanon, 2010 versus 2019 Figure 2.3. Unemployment rates in Iraq, by age, education, and gender, 2017 -- Figure 2.4. Merchandise trade openness and the level of income per capita, 2008-10 versus 2016-18 -- Figure 2.5. Net capital flows to Iraq, Jordan, and Lebanon, 2006-10 versus 2011-17 -- Figure 2.6. Estimates of average unrecorded capital movements, selected Mashreq countries, 2011-17 -- Figure 2.7. Governance indicators, selected Mashreq countries, 2010 versus 2018 -- Figure 3.1. Real GDP levels and growth, Iraq, Jordan, and Lebanon -- Figure 3.2. Growth decomposition for Iraq, Jordan, and Lebanon, supply side Summary The people of the Mashreq have seen more than their share of deaths, economic losses, and instability over the past decade. As the decade-long conflict in the Syrian Arab Republic created new challenges and worsened the existing ones, economic activity declined, labor markets deteriorated, and poverty increased. These trends would overwhelm even the most advanced economies in the world. This publication identifies the impact of the Syrian conflict on economic and social outcomes in Iraq, Jordan, and Lebanon. It combines a large number of data sources, statistical approaches, and a suite of economic models to isolate the specific impact of the Syrian conflict from that of global and regional factors, and it explicitly analyzes the mechanisms through which such an impact is manifested. The analysis suggests that a persistent short-termism in policy making has so far propagated the shock emanating from the Syrian conflict, which led to costly and ineffective service provision, lost economic opportunities, and underfunded programs. The report advocates for a fundamental shift from the short-term mitigation policies to a medium-term regional strategy to address pertinent structural problems. Moreover, as the countries in the Mashreq look toward recovery, a policy approach that takes into account the region's interconnectedness and seeks to build on it provides better prospects for the people. Such a regional approach that addresses cross-boundary issues-- including migration, trade, and infrastructure-- will require local, regional, and international commitments Bibliography Includes bibliographical references Notes Description based on resource, viewed December 3, 2020 Subject Interregionalism -- Middle East Politics and war -- Middle East Economics Interregionalism Politics and war Social aspects SUBJECT Syria -- History -- Civil War, 2011- -- Economic aspects Syria -- History -- Civil War, 2011- -- Social aspects Subject Middle East Syria Genre/Form Electronic books History Form Electronic book Author Onder, Harun, author, editor. Sayed, Haneen, editor ISBN 9781464816154 1464816158

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