Title Explaining Political Judgement

Published Cambridge : Cambridge University Press, 2011

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Description 1 online resource (356 pages) Contents Cover; Explaining Political Judgement; Title; Copyright; Contents; Figures; Tables; Acknowledgements; Epigraph; I; II; III; 1 On political judgement; Characterising political judgement; Problems for political judgement; Argument; Significance of the argument; Structure of the book; 2 The need for richer explanation; Traditions of writing about political judgement; A character trait?; Do we need to explain judgement at all?; Not the common-or-garden problem with rational choice; Rationality needs institutions: but of what kind?; Endogenous preferences and rationalities Attenuations of idealised rationalityBounded rationality in games; Bayesian updating of prior information or assumptions; Heuristics, biases and analogies; Prospect theory; 3 A Durkheimian theoretical framework; Forms of institutional explanation; Informal institutions; Core association; Expected range of variation; Ritual causal mechanisms and micro-foundations; The informal ritual order in politics and decision-making; Structure of explanation; Independent variables: measures of social organisation; Intermediating variables about mechanism; Dependent variables: political judgement Categories, classification and anomaliesHindsight and foresight; Risk strategy and the domain of losses; Framing the actor's self-image in relation to losses; Reasons and goals; Issue linkage; Expected values; Relationships between theories and models; Answering critiques; 4 October 1962, before and after; Why re-examine the Cuban missile crisis?; A very short chronicle of the crisis; Decision to deploy: April to May; Build-up: May to September; The 'gravest issues' -- a warning backfires: 4 September to 15 October; The choosers -- ExComm and its lack of a counterpart: 16 to 22 October Choices -- Kennedy's options: 16 to 20 OctoberRites of decision, rites of announcement: 17 to 22 October; Stand-off: 23 to 25 October; Manoeuvres on the brink: 26 October; Cross-wires and tripwires: 27 October; Climbdown at the last moment: 28 October; Aftermath; Theoretical frameworks applied to the Cuban missile crisis; 5 The Khrushchev régime; Isolate institutions and networks; Individualism, but subaltern to isolate ordering; Ritual forms: meetings, conversations and rituals of decision; communication; Isolate political judgement: reasons and goals; Risk stance in the domain of losses Framing the selfLoss framing; The limits of strategy for the structural isolate; Issue linkage; Category formation and anomaly management; Hindsight and foresight; Misunderstanding the opponent; 6 The Kennedy administration; Individualistic institutions and networks; Ritual forms: meetings, conversations and rituals of decision; communication; Individualistic political judgement: reasons and goals; Risk stance in the domain of losses; Strategy under individualistic institutions; Category formation and anomaly management; Framing Soviet demands; Categorising issue linkage Summary A fresh theory of political judgment, using analysis of the Cuban Missile Crisis to provide new implications for political science Notes Offensive weapons and defensive purposes Bibliography Includes bibliographical references and index Notes English Print version record Subject Judgment -- Political aspects Decision making -- Political aspects Judgment -- Political aspects -- Case studies Decision making -- Political aspects -- Case studies Cuban Missile Crisis, 1962. POLITICAL SCIENCE -- International Relations -- General. PHILOSOPHY -- Political. Decision making -- Political aspects Entscheidungsfindung Kubakrise Politische Entscheidung Genre/Form Case studies Form Electronic book LC no. 2011010085 ISBN 9781139159456 1139159453 1107009227 9781107009226 1283342545 9781283342544 9781139161503 1139161504 9780511920738 0511920733 1139152955 9781139152952 1107228190 9781107228191 1139160508 9781139160506 9786613342546 6613342548 1139155938 9781139155939 1107484162 9781107484160

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