Title Macroeconomic Consequences of Tariffs / by Davide Furceri, Swarnali A. Hannan, Jonathan D. Ostry, and Andrew K. Rose

Published [Washington, D.C.] : International Monetary Fund, [2019] ©2019

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Description 1 online resource (58 pages) Series IMF Working Paper ; WP/19/9 IMF working paper ; WP/19/9. Contents Cover; Contents; I. Introduction; II. Empirical Methodology; A. Country-level analysis; B. Industry-level analysis; III. Results; A. Aggregate Results; IV. Conclusion; References; List of Tables; 1. Data Sources for Country-level Analysis; 2. List of Countries in Country-level Analysis; 3. List of Countries in Industry-level Analysis; 4. List of Industries; 5. List of Advanced Economies in Country-level Analysis; 6. The Aggregate and Distributional Effects of Tariffs; List of Figures; 1. The Effect of Tariffs; 2. The Effect of Tariffs -- Tariff Increases vs. Decreases Advanced Economies vs. Emerging Markets & Developing Economies3. The Effect of Tariffs -- Expansions vs. Recessions; 4. Robustness for Output; 5. Robustness for Productivity; 6. The Effect of Tariffs using Industry-level Data; Appendices; I. Three Episodes of Tariff Hikes; II. Results for Unemployment, Inequality, Real Exchange Rate, and Trade Balance; III. Robustness Results for Unemployment, Inequality, Real Exchange Rate, and Trade Balance; IV. Results for Consumption and Inflation; V. Instrumental Variable; Endnotes Summary We study the macroeconomic consequences of tariffs. We estimate impulse response functions from local projections using a panel of annual data that spans 151 countries over 1963-2014. We find that tariff increases lead, in the medium term, to economically and statistically significant declines in domestic output and productivity. Tariff increases also result in more unemployment, higher inequality, and real exchange rate appreciation, but only small effects on the trade balance. The effects on output and productivity tend to be magnified when tariffs rise during expansions, for advanced economies, and when tariffs go up, not down. Our results are robust to a large number of perturbations to our methodology, and we complement our analysis with industry-level data Notes Print version record Subject Protectionism -- Economic aspects Tariff -- Economic aspects Industrial productivity -- Economic aspects Industrial productivity -- Economic aspects Protectionism -- Economic aspects Tariff -- Economic aspects Form Electronic book Author Ahmed Hannan, Swarnali, author Ostry, Jonathan David, author Rose, Andrew, 1959- author. International Monetary Fund, issuing body. ISBN 1484394933 9781484394939

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