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Author Bruce, James B.

Title Whither al-Anbar Province? : five scenarios through 2011 / James B. Bruce, Jeffrey Martini
Published Santa Monica, CA : RAND, 2010
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Description 1 online resource (xiii, 12 pages)
Series Occasional paper ; OP-278-MCIA
Occasional paper (Rand Corporation) ; OP-278-MCIA
Contents Executive summary -- What does the future hold for Iraq's al-Anbar Province? -- How this study was conducted -- Implications -- Major takeaways -- Study approach -- Assumptions -- Drivers -- Scenario A: Sunni fight for survival -- Scenario B: Every clan for itself -- Scenario C: Iron fist -- Scenario D: Glueless in Baghdad -- Scenario E: Path to stability -- The importance of drivers -- Indications and warnings -- Conclusions and implications
Summary The withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iraq will create a vacuum in the way security is achieved and power is exercised throughout Iraq. As U.S. Marines draw down in al-Anbar Province, significant changes can be expected throughout the province in security, political, economic, and even cultural relationships. In late 2008, RAND convened a series of three one-day workshops bringing together civilian and military analysts and practitioners with experience on al-Anbar Province or comparable expertise on Iraq. Workshops participants identified five relatively distinct futures, or scenarios, for al-Anbar that provide plausible but alternative trajectories for the province between early 2009 and the end of 2011. These scenarios resulted from extensive consideration of the major assumptions that may underlie any future projections and the testing of those assumptions in a variety of exercises. The deliberations also focused on the major factors that will shape the development of one or another scenario
Bibliography Includes bibliographical references
Notes Print version record
Subject Disengagement (Military science) -- Congresses.
Iraq War, 2003-2011 -- Influence -- Congresses.
Social change -- Iraq -- Anbār (Province) -- Congresses.
Social prediction -- Iraq -- Anbār (Province) -- Case studies -- Congresses.
Anbār (Iraq : Province) -- Economic conditions -- 21st century -- Forecasting -- Congresses.
Anbār (Iraq : Province) -- Politics and government -- 21st century -- Forecasting -- Congresses.
Anbār (Iraq : Province) -- Social conditions -- 21st century -- Forecasting -- Congresses.
United States.
Genre/Form Conference papers and proceedings.
Conference papers and proceedings.
Case studies.
Form Electronic book
Author Martini, Jeffrey.
United States. Marine Corps Intelligence Activity.
Intelligence Policy Center (U.S.)
LC no. 2010004239
ISBN 0833050818 (electronic bk.)
9780833050816 (electronic bk.)