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Title Forecasting expected returns in the financial markets / edited by Stephen Satchell
Published Oxford : Elsevier/AP, 2007
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Description 1 online resource (x, 286 pages) : illustrations
Series Quantitative finance series
Quantitative finance series.
Contents Cover -- Contents -- List of contributors -- Introduction -- Chapter 1 Market efficiency and forecasting -- 1.1 Introduction -- 1.2 A modern view of market efficiency and predictability -- 1.3 Weak-form predictability -- 1.4 Semi-strong form predictability -- 1.5 Methodological issues -- 1.6 Perspective -- 1.7 Conclusion -- References -- Chapter 2 A step-by-step guide to the Black-Litterman model -- 2.1 Introduction -- 2.2 Expected returns -- 2.3 The Black-Litterman model -- 2.4 A new method for incorporating user-specified confidence levels -- 2.5 Conclusion -- References -- Chapter 3 A demystification of the Black-Litterman model: managing quantitative and traditional portfolio construction -- 3.1 Introduction -- 3.2 Workings of the model -- 3.3 Examples -- 3.4 Alternative formulations -- 3.5 Conclusion -- Appendix -- References -- Chapter 4 Optimal portfolios from ordering information -- 4.1 Introduction -- 4.2 Efficient portfolios -- 4.3 Optimal portfolios -- 4.4 A variety of sorts -- 4.5 Empirical tests -- 4.6 Conclusion -- Appendix A -- Appendix B -- References -- Chapter 5 Some choices in forecast construction -- 5.1 Introduction -- 5.2 Linear factor models -- 5.3 Approximating risk with a mixture of normals -- 5.4 Practical problems in the model-building process -- 5.5 Optimization with non-normal return expectations -- 5.6 Conclusion -- References -- Chapter 6 Bayesian analysis of the Black-Scholes option price -- 6.1 Introduction -- 6.2 Derivation of the prior and posterior densities -- 6.3 Numerical evaluation -- 6.4 Results -- 6.5 Concluding remarks and issues for further research -- Appendix -- References -- Chapter 7 Bayesian forecasting of options prices: a natural framework for pooling historical and implied volatility information -- 7.1 Introduction -- 7.2 A classical framework for option pricing -- 7.3 A Bayesian framework for option pricing -- 7.4 Empirical implementation -- 7.5 Conclusion -- Appendix -- References -- Chapter 8 Robust optimization for utilizing forecasted returns in institutional investment -- 8.1 Introduction -- 8.2 Notions of robustness -- 8.3 Case study: an implementation of robustness via forecast errors and quadratic constraints -- 8.4 Extensions to the theory -- 8.5 Conclusion -- References -- Chapter 9 Cross-sectional stock returns in the UK market: the role of liquidity risk -- 9.1 Introduction -- 9.2 Hypotheses and calculating factors -- 9.3 Empirical results -- 9.4 Conclusions -- References -- Chapter 10 The information horizon -- optimal holding period, strategy aggression and model combination in a multi-horizon framework -- 10.1 The information coefficient and information decay -- 10.2 Returns and information decay in the single model case -- 10.3 Model combination -- 10.4 Information decay in models -- 10.5 Models -- optimal horizon, aggression and model combination -- Reference -- Chapter 11 Optimal forecasting horizon for skilled investo
Summary Dr Stephen Satchell brings together a collection of leading thinkers from around the world to address this complex and central challenge in portfolio management
Bibliography Includes bibliographical references and index
Notes Print version record
Subject Investment analysis.
Stock price forecasting -- Mathematical models.
Stock price forecasting.
Form Electronic book
Author Satchell, S. (Stephen)
ISBN 0080550673 (electronic bk.)
1281057657
9780080550671 (electronic bk.)
9781281057655