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Author Freier, Nathan

Title Known unknowns : unconventional "strategic shocks" in defense strategy development / Nathan Freier
Published Carlisle, Pa. : Peacekeeping and Stability Operations Institute and Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College, [2008]
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Description 1 online resource (viii, 44 p.)
Series PKSOI papers
PKSOI papers
Contents Summary -- Introduction : the failure of imagination -- "Known unknowns" : predictable but unpredicted strategic shocks -- Trapped by convention : seeing the future we want? -- Seeing the whole future : incorporating shocks in defense strategy -- Routinizing imagination : plausible unconventional shocks -- Conclusion : Avoiding the next blue ribbon panel -- or worse
Summary The current defense team confronted a game-changing "strategic shock" in its first 8 months in office. The next team would be well-advised to expect the same. Defense-relevant strategic shocks jolt convention to such an extent that they force sudden, unanticipated change in the Department of Defense's (DoD) perceptions about threat, vulnerability, and strategic response. Their unanticipated onset forces the entire defense enterprise to reorient and restructure institutions, employ capabilities in unexpected ways, and confront challenges that are fundamentally different than those routinely considered in defense calculations. The likeliest and most dangerous future shocks will be unconventional. They will not emerge from thunderbolt advances in an opponent's military capabilities. Rather, they will manifest themselves in ways far outside established defense convention. Most will be nonmilitary in origin and character, and not, by definition, defense-specific events conducive to the conventional employment of the DoD enterprise. They will rise from an analytical no man's land separating well-considered, stock and trade defense contingencies and pure defense speculation. Their origin is most likely to be in irregular, catastrophic, and hybrid threats of "purpose" (emerging from hostile design) or threats of "context" (emerging in the absence of hostile purpose or design). Of the two, the latter is both the least understood and the most dangerous
Notes "November 2008."
"The current defense team confronted a game-changing "strategic shock" in its first 8 months in office. The next team would be well-advised to expect the same. Defense-relevant strategic shocks jolt convention to such an extent that they force sudden, unanticipated change in the Department of Defense's (DoD) perceptions about threat, vulnerability, and strategic response. Their unanticipated onset forces the entire defense enterprise to reorient and restructure institutions, employ capabilities in unexpected ways, and confront challenges that are fundamentally different than those routinely considered in defense calculations. The likeliest and most dangerous future shocks will be unconventional. They will not emerge from thunderbolt advances in an opponent's military capabilities. Rather, they will manifest themselves in ways far outside established defense convention. Most will be nonmilitary in origin and character, and not, by definition, defense-specific events conducive to the conventional employment of the DoD enterprise. They will rise from an analytical no man's land separating well-considered, stock and trade defense contingencies and pure defense speculation. Their origin is most likely to be in irregular, catastrophic, and hybrid threats of "purpose" (emerging from hostile design) or threats of "context" (emerging in the absence of hostile purpose or design). Of the two, the latter is both the least understood and the most dangerous."--P. vii
Title from title screen (viewed Feb. 1, 2011)
Bibliography Includes bibliographical references (p. 37-44)
Notes Master and use copy. Digital master created according to Benchmark for Faithful Digital Reproductions of Monographs and Serials, Version 1. Digital Library Federation, December 2002. http://purl.oclc.org/DLF/benchrepro0212 MiAaHDL
digitized 2010 HathiTrust Digital Library committed to preserve pda MiAaHDL
Subject United States. Department of Defense -- Rules and practice
United States. Department of Defense.
Military art and science
Strategy
Surprise (Military science)
Form Electronic book
Author Army War College (U.S.). Strategic Studies Institute
Peacekeeping and Stability Operations Institute
Other Titles Unconventional "strategic shocks" in defense strategy development