Book Cover
Book
Author Tetlock, Philip E. (Philip Eyrikson), 1954-

Title Expert political judgment : how good is it? how can we know? / Philip E. Tetlock
Published Princeton, N.J. ; Woodstock : Princeton University Press, 2006

Copies

Location Call no. Vol. Availability
 MELB  320.019 Tet/Epj  DUE 04-04-24
Description xvi, 321 pages : illustrations ; 25 cm
Contents Ch. 1. Quantifying the unquantifiable -- Ch. 2. The ego-deflating challenge of radical skepticism -- Ch. 3. Knowing the limits of one's knowledge : foxes have better calibration and discrimination scores than hedgehogs -- Ch. 4. Honoring reputational bets : foxes are better Bayesians than hedgehogs -- Ch. 5. Contemplating counterfactuals : foxes are more willing than hedgehogs to entertain self-subversive scenarios -- Ch. 6. The hedgehogs strike back -- Ch. 7. Are we open-minded enough to acknowledge the limits of open-mindedness? -- Ch. 8. Exploring the limits on objectivity and accountability -- Technical appendix / Phillip Rescober and Philip E. Tetlock
Summary "The intelligence failures surrounding the invasion of Iraq dramatically illustrate the necessity of developing standards for evaluating expert opinion. This book fills that need. Here, Philip E. Tetlock explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events, and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts." "Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. He evaluates predictions from experts in different fields, comparing them to predictions by well-informed laity or those based on simple extrapolation from current trends. He goes on to analyze which styles of thinking are more successful in forecasting."--BOOK JACKET
Notes Formerly CIP. Uk
Bibliography Includes bibliographical references and index
Subject Political psychology.
Ideology.
LC no. 2004061694
ISBN 0691123020 alkaline paper
9780691123028 cased
9780691128719 paperback
0691128715 paperback