Title Household and living arrangement projections : the extended cohort-compound method and applications to the U.S. and China / Yi Zeng, Kenneth C. Land, Danan Gu, Zhenglian Wang

Published Dordrecht : Springer, [2014] ©2014

Table of Contents
1.	Introduction					1
1.1.	Definitions of Family and Household					2
1.2.	Why Project Household and Living Arrangements?					2
1.2.1.	Household Projections, Socioeconomic Planning and Policy Analysis					2
1.2.2.	Household Projections and Consumption Market Analysis					4
1.2.3.	A Tool for Development of Demographic Theories					4
1.3.	Why Do Household Projections Need to Use Demographic Rates as Input?					6
1.3.1.	Demographic Change and Family Household Dynamics					6
1.3.2.	Demographic Change, Elderly Living Arrangements, and Care Needs and Costs					7
1.3.3.	Demographic Changes and Living Arrangements of Children					8
1.3.4.	Demographic Changes and Family Life Course of Adults, Especially Single Mothers					9
1.4.	A Brief Review of Methodological Approaches for Household Projections and Simulations					10
1.4.1.	Headship Rate					10
1.4.2.	Micro-Simulation Models					11
1.4.3.	Macro-Simulation Models					12
1.5.	Concluding Remarks					15
pt. I	Methodology, Data, and Assessments
2.	ProFamy: The Extended Cohort-Component Method for Household and Living Arrangement Projections					19
2.1.	Units of Analysis and Demographic Status Identification					19
2.2.	Core Ideas of the ProFamy Extended Cohort-Component Model					21
2.2.1.	Core Idea 1: A Multi-State Accounting Model					22
2.2.2.	Core Idea 2: Distinguishing Continuously Occurring from Periodic Demographic Accounting Processes					26
2.2.3.	Core Idea 3: A Judicious Use of Independence Assumptions					27
2.2.4.	Core Idea 4: Employing the National Age-Sex-Specific Model Standard Schedules and the Summary Parameters at the Sub-National Level					28
2.3.	The Demographic Accounting Equations					31
2.4.	Projecting Households and All Individuals of the Entire Population Simultaneously					36
2.5.	Consistencies in the Two-Sex and Multi-Generation Model					37
2.5.1.	Consistency Between Males and Females					37
2.5.2.	Consistency Between Children and Parents					38
2.5.3.	Consistency Between Births Calculated for the Female and Male Populations					39
2.5.4.	Consistency Between Females' and Males' Status of Co-residence with Children Before and After Divorce (or Dissolution of Cohabitation) or Remarriage					39
Appendix 1	Procedure to Correct the Inaccurate Accounting of Household Size Distribution Due to the Lack of Capacity to Identify the Reference Person's Co-residence Status with Other Relatives or Non-relatives					41
Appendix 2	A procedure to Meet the Requirement that Other Relatives and Non-relatives Cannot Be Reference Persons of the Household					42
Appendix 3	Parity Transition Probabilities in the 1st and 2nd Half of the Year					43
Appendix 4	Procedures for Estimating Transition Probabilities of Status of Co-residence with Parents					44
Appendix 5	Procedures for Estimation of Probabilities of Change in Number of Children Living Together					47
3.	Data Needs and Estimation Procedures					49
3.1.	Data Needed					49
3.2.	Estimation and Projections of Age-Sex-Specific Demographic Rates					53
3.3.	Pooling Data from Multiple Surveys to Estimate the Age-Sex-Status-Specific Standard Schedules: Rationale and Justification					54
3.4.	Estimation of Demographic Summary Measures					55
Appendix 1	Procedures to Ensure the Accuracy of the Base Population for the Projections					57
Appendix 2	Standardized General Rates of Marriage/Union Formation and Dissolution					59
Appendix 3	Procedure to Estimate Proportions of Those Aged 40-44 in Year t Who Do Not Live with Parents and Proportions of Elders Aged x in Year t Living with Adult Children), While Taking into Account the Effects of Large Changes in Fertility					61
Appendix 4	Procedure to Calculate Sex-Age-Specific Rates While Ensuring the Consistency of the Two-Sex Constraints and the Projected Standardized General Rates of Marriage/Union Formation and Dissolution					64
Appendix 5	Procedure to Estimate General Rates of Marriage/Union Formation and Dissolution at the Starting Year of the Projections					70
4.	Empirical Assessments and a Comparison with the Headship Rate Method					73
4.1.	Empirical Assessments: Comparisons of Projections and Census Enumerations at the National and Sub-National Levels					73
4.2.	A Comparison Between the Classic Headship Rate Method and the ProFamy Extended Cohort-Component Approach					80
4.2.1.	Conceptual Issues					80
4.2.2.	Linkage with Demographic Rates					80
4.2.3.	Cross-Sectional Extrapolations Versus Cohort-by-Cohort Projections					81
4.2.4.	Household Members Other than Heads					81
4.2.5.	Information Produced and Adequacy for Planning					81
4.2.6.	Methodology					83
4.2.7.	Data Requirements, Time and Resource Costs					84
4.3.	A Comparison of Housing Demand Forecast Errors Between the Headship Rate Method and the ProFamy Extended Cohort-Component Approach					86
Appendix 1	Procedures to Project Housing Demands Based on Household Projections Employing the Headship Rate Method or the ProFamy Approach					88
5.	Extension of ProFamy Model to Project Elderly Disability Status and Home-Based Care Costs, with an Illustrative Application					91
5.1.	Introduction					91
5.2.	The Further Extended ProFamy Method Including Projections of Elderly Disability and Home-Based Care Costs					93
5.3.	An Illustrative Application to China					95
5.3.1.	Data Sources and Estimates					95
5.3.2.	Scenario Design and Parameters					97
5.3.3.	Results					100
5.4.	Concluding Remarks					107
6.	Household and Living Arrangement Projections at the Small Area Level					109
6.1.	Basic Concepts to Apply the ProFamy Approach in Combination with Ratio Methods for Small Areas					109
6.2.	The Constant-Share and Shift-Share Ratio Methods					111
6.3.	Empirical Assessment and Illustrative Applications					112
7.	A Simple Method for Projecting Pension Deficit Rates and an Illustrative Application					115
7.1.	Introduction					115
7.2.	The Method					116
7.3.	Illustrative Application to China					118
7.3.1.	The Pension System in China					118
7.3.2.	Assumptions of Parameters for Different Scenarios					120
7.3.3.	The Results					125
7.4.	Discussion					127
7.5.	Concluding Remarks					129
Appendix 1	Derivation of the Simple Method					130
pt. II	Applications in the United States
8.	U.S. Family Household Momentum and Dynamics: Projections at the National Level					135
8.1.	Data and Estimates					135
8.2.	Medium Projections					138
8.3.	Family Household Momentum					140
8.4.	Low and High Bounds of Household and Living Arrangement Projections					141
8.5.	Racial Differentials in Dynamics of Households and Living Arrangements					143
8.6.	Concluding Remarks					145
Appendix 1	A Procedure to Adjust the o/e Rates of Marital/Cohabiting Union Status Transitions Based on the NSFH and NSFG Data to Be Consistent with the o/e Rates of Marital Status Transitions Based on the CPS, SIPP, NSFH, and NSFG Data					146
Appendix 2	Comparisons of Summary Measures of Marital Status Life Tables (Excluding Cohabitation) Between Our Estimates Based on the Pooled Survey Data and Schoen's Estimates Based on Vital Statistics, All Races Combined					148
Appendix 3	Major Parameters of Medium Forecasts, Smaller and Larger Family Household Scenarios					149
9.	Household and Living Arrangement Projections for the 50 States, Washington DC, and Relatively Large Counties in the U.S.					151
9.1.	Data and Parameter Assumptions					151
9.2.	Low and High Bounds of Household and Living Arrangement Projections					152
9.3.	Summary of Projection Outcomes					154
9.4.	Discussion and Concluding Remarks					156
Appendix 1	Information About Population Sizes of the 50 States, DC, the Six Counties of SC, and the M-S Area					157
Appendix 2	Output of Household and Living Arrangement Projections, U.S. Sub-National Level					158
10.	Effects of Changes in Household Structure and Living Arrangements on Future Home-Based Care Costs for Disabled Elders in the United States					167
10.1.	Introduction					167
10.2.	Data Sources and Parameter Estimates and Assumptions					170
10.2.1.	Demographic Age-Sex-Specific Standard Schedules and Summary Parameters					170
10.2.2.	Estimates of Disability and Home-Based Care Cost Parameters					171
10.3.	Results					172
10.3.1.	A Substantial Increase in Number of Disabled Elders and Remarkable Acceleration After 2020, Especially for the Oldest-Old					173
10.3.2.	The Increase in Home-Based Care Costs for Disabled Elders Will Dramatically Accelerate After 2020, Especially for the Disabled Oldest-Old					178
10.3.3.	Gender Differentials					179
10.3.4.	Racial Differentials					180
10.3.5.	High and Low Bounds of Home-Based Care Costs					182
10.4.	Concluding Remarks					182
Appendix 1	The Estimated and Assumed Demographic Summary Measures in the Baseline and Future Years for the United States					185
Appendix 2	A Two-Step Procedure to Estimate Age-Sex-Race-Living Arrangement-Disability Status-Specific Care Hours and Care Costs Per Elder					186
Appendix 3	Age-Sex-Race-Living Arrangement-Specific Disability Rates, Home-Based Care Hours, and Care Costs ($), Based on Data from NLTCS 1999 Wave, the United States					187
11.	Projections of Household Vehicle Consumption in the United States					189
11.1.	Introduction					189
11.2.	Data Sources and Model Specification to Account for Regional, Income, and Racial Differentials					190
11.3.	Estimation of Household Vehicle Ownership Rates by Household Characteristics, Race, and Region					191
11.4.	Results of Household Vehicle Consumption Forecasts					194
11.4.1.	Household Projection Outcome					194
11.4.2.	Validation Tests: A Comparison Between Our Projected Numbers and Official Statistics on Number of Home-Use Passenger Cars, 2000--2009					196
11.4.3.	A General Description of the Forecasts					197
11.4.4.	Forecast by Age and Race of Householders					197
11.4.5.	Forecast by Type, Size and Income of Households					200
11.4.6.	Forecast by Region					201
11.5.	Conclusion and Discussion					203
Appendix 1	The Four Regions Defined By the US Census Bureau					205
Appendix 2	Consistency Examination Across the Four Regions					205
Appendix 3	Consistency Examination for Percentile Distribution of Income Categories					205
pt. III	Applications in China
12.	Household and Living Arrangement Projections in China at the National Level					211
12.1.	Introduction					211
12.2.	Data and Estimates					212
12.3.	Profile of Future Trends					214
12.3.1.	Rapid Population Aging					214
12.3.2.	Projection of Family Household Structure and Size					217
12.3.3.	Proportion of Elderly Who Live in Empty-Nest Households					219
12.3.4.	Dependency Ratios					220
12.4.	Summary and Concluding Remarks					222
13.	Dynamics of Households and Living Arrangements in the Eastern, Middle, and Western Regions of China					225
13.1.	Introduction					225
13.2.	Method, Data Sources, and Parameter Assumptions					225
13.3.	Results of the Comparative Regional Projections					228
13.3.1.	The Middle Region Will Face the Most Serious Challenges of Population and Household Aging					228
13.3.2.	Population and Household Aging Will Be More than 1.5 Times or Twice as Severe in Rural Areas Compared to Urban Areas in the Middle and Eastern Regions					232
13.4.	Discussion and Policy Considerations					234
Appendix 1	Parameters of Population and Household Projection at the Regional Level					236
14.	Application of Household and Living Arrangement Projections to Policy Analysis in China					237
14.1.	Introduction					237
14.2.	A Brief Review of Related Policy Research and Debates on Fertility Policy Transition Options in China					238
14.3.	The Data Sources, Policy Scenario Designs, and Parameter Assumptions					240
14.4.	Comparative Analysis Under Different Fertility Policy Scenarios					243
14.4.1.	Population Growth					243
14.4.2.	Percentage of Elderly and Elderly Living in Empty-Nest Households					244
14.4.3.	Labor Force and the Elderly Dependency Ratio					245
14.4.4.	Resources of Care Providers for Disabled Elderly					248
14.4.5.	Sex Ratio at Birth and Marriage Squeeze					249
14.4.6.	Socioeconomic Costs and Human Capital					251
14.4.7.	The "Two-Child Solely for Only-Child Couples" Is a Very Poor Policy Option					253
14.5.	Challenges and Opportunities Associated with Retirement Age and Rural Old Age Insurance Program					254
14.6.	Policy Recommendations					256
14.6.1.	Transfer to the Two-Child Policy with Adequate Spacing Fertility Policy as Soon as Possible					256
14.6.2.	Gradually Increase Age at Retirement					258
14.6.3.	Further Develop the Rural Old Age Insurance Program					259
14.7.	Concluding Remarks					259
15.	Household Housing Demand Projections for Hebei Province of China					263
15.1.	Introduction					263
15.2.	Method, Data, and Input Parameter Estimates					264
15.2.1.	The Method					264
15.2.2.	Data Sources, Estimates, and Parameter Assumptions					265
15.3.	Results and Discussion					268
15.3.1.	A Brief Outline of the Current Household Housing Situation					268
15.3.2.	General Trends of Household and Population Dynamics					269
15.3.3.	General Trends of Owned and Rental Housing Demands					270
15.3.4.	Housing Demand By Rural and Urban Residence					274
15.3.5.	The Aging of Housing Demand					275
15.3.6.	Housing Demand By Household Type					275
15.4.	Summary and Relevant Policy Considerations					276
15.5.	Concluding Remarks					277
pt. IV	ProFamy: A Software for Household and Consumption Forecasting
16.	Setting Up the Projection Model					283
16.1.	Main menu					283
16.2.	Create, Open and Save ProFamy Files					284
16.3.	Specify Models and Data Types					286
17.	Preparing Input Data, Computing, and Managing Output					297
17.1.	How to Prepare Input Data of the Base Population					297
17.1.1.	Format and Variable Definitions for the Input File of Base Population					298
17.1.2.	How to Run BasePop					302
17.2.	How to Prepare the Input Data for Standard Schedules					304
17.2.1.	Input Data Sheets					305
17.2.2.	Standard Schedules of Mortality					307
17.2.3.	Standard Schedules of Marriage/Union Formation and Dissolution					307
17.2.4.	Standard Schedules of Fertility					308
17.2.5.	Standard Schedules of Leaving the Parental Home					311
17.2.6.	Standard Schedules of Migration					312
17.3.	How to Prepare the Summary Measures					314
17.4.	How to Prepare Input Data for the Total Population (100 % Tabulation) By Age, Sex and Marital Status					316
17.5.	Input Data for the Total Institutional Population (100 % Tabulation) By Age and Sex					317
17.6.	How to Run "Computation of the Projection"					318
17.7.	How to View and Manage the Results					319
18.	Epilogue: Summary and Future Perspectives					323
18.1.	Methodological Core Ideas and Empirical Assessments of the ProFamy Extended Cohort-Component Approach and Comparisons with the Classic Headship Rate Method					323
18.2.	Extensions of the ProFamy Model to Project Elderly Disability Status, Home-Based Care Costs, and Pension Deficit Rates, with Illustrative Applications					325
18.3.	Household and Living Arrangement Projections at the Small Area Level					326
18.4.	Applications to the United States					326
18.5.	Applications to China					328
18.6.	User's Guide of the ProFamy Software for Household and Consumption Forecasting					329
18.7.	Limitations and Future Research Perspectives					330
	References					333
	Index					351

Click on the following:
Springer Humanities Social Sciences and Law eBooks
Springer eBooks

Copies

Description 1 online resource (xxix, 357 pages) : illustrations (some color) Series The Springer series on demographic methods and population analysis ; 36 Springer series on demographic methods and population analysis ; 36. 1389-6784 Contents 1. Introduction -- PART I. METHODOLOGY, DATA, AND ASSESSMENTS -- 2. ProFamy: The Extended Cohort-Component Method for Household and Living Arrangement Projections -- 3. Data Needs and Estimation Procedures -- 4. Empirical Assessments and a Comparison with the Headship Rate Method -- 5. Extension of ProFamy Model to Project Elderly Disability Status and Home-Based Care Costs, with an Illustrative Application -- 6. Household and Living Arrangement Projections at the Small Area Level -- 7. A Simple Method for Projecting Pension Deficit Rates and an Illustrative Application PART II. APPLICATIONS IN THE UNITED STATES -- 8. U.S. Family Household Momentum and Dynamics: Projections at the National Level -- 9. Household and Living Arrangement Projections for the 50 States, Washington DC, and Relatively Large Counties in the U.S. -- 10. Effects of Changes in Household Structure and Living Arrangements on Future Home-Based Care Costs for Disabled Elders in the United States -- 11. Projections of Household Vehicle Consumption in the United States PART III. APPLICATIONS IN CHINA -- 12. Household and Living Arrangement Projections in China at the National Level -- 13. Dynamics of Households and Living Arrangements in the Eastern, Middle, and Western Regions of China -- 14. Application of Household and Living Arrangement Projections to Policy Analysis in China -- 15. Household Housing Demand Projections for Hebei Province of China PART IV. PROFAMY: A SOFTWARE FOR HOUSEHOLD AND CONSUMPTION FORECASTING -- 16. Setting Up the Projection Model -- 17. Preparing Input Data, Computing, and Managing Output -- 18. Epilogue: Summary and Future Perspectives Summary "This book presents an innovative demographic toolkit known as the ProFamy extended cohort-component method for the projection of household structures and living arrangements with empirical applications to the United States, the largest developed country, and China, the largest developing country. The ProFamy method uses demographic rates as inputs to project detailed distributions of household types and sizes, living arrangements of all household members, and population by age, sex, race/ethnicity, and urban/rural residence at national, sub-national, or small area levels. It can also project elderly care needs and costs, pension deficits, and household consumption. The ProFamy method presented herein has substantial merits compared to the traditional headship rate method, which is not linked to demographic rates and projects limited household types without other household members than 'heads'. The book consists of four parts. The first part presents the methodology, data, estimation issues, and empirical assessments. The next parts present applications in the United States (part two) and China (part three), concerning demographic, social, economic, and business research; policy analysis, including forecasting future trends of household type/size, elderly living arrangements, disability, and home-based care costs, and household consumption including housing and vehicles. The fourth part includes a user's guide for the ProFamy software to project households, living arrangements, and home-based consumptions. This book offers an invaluable toolkit for researchers, analysts and students in academic, public and private businesses, whose work is related to levels and rates of change in households, population and consumption patterns."--Publisher's description Bibliography Includes bibliographical references (pages 333-349) and index Notes English Subject Population forecasting. Households -- Economic aspects -- United States -- Forecasting Households -- Economic aspects -- China -- Forecasting Consumption (Economics) -- United States -- Forecasting Consumption (Economics) -- China -- Forecasting SOCIAL SCIENCE -- Demography. SOCIAL SCIENCE -- Anthropology -- General. Droit. Sciences sociales. Sciences humaines. Consumption (Economics) -- Forecasting Population forecasting China United States Form Electronic book Author Land, Kenneth C., author Gu, Danan, author Wang, Zhenglian (Population researcher), author. ISBN 9789048189069 9048189063

  Permalink