| Description |
xii, 104 pages : illustrations ; 25 cm |
| Contents |
1. Introduction -- 2. Food security issues in perspective -- Global food security -- Regional food security -- National food security and self-sufficiency -- Food security and international trade -- 3. Analytical approach and baseline assumptions -- Why focus on grains? -- Model overview -- 'Base case' assumptions -- 4. Base case projections -- Global projections and food security -- Regional and country projections -- 5. Alternative scenarios for productivity and income growth -- 6. Food security and trade -- The Uruguay Round -- Implications of free trade -- Trade liberalisation raises incomes -- Self-sufficiency: China as a test case -- 7. Conclusions and policy implications -- Appendix 1. Global grains model -- Appendix 2. Projections of world economic growth -- Appendix 3. Details base case projections -- Appendix D. Estimated welfare gains from trade liberalisation |
| Summary |
There has been considerable progress in improving global food security over the past twenty years despite a 40% increase in population. There is no reason to believe that this long-term trend will not continue. The results of this study indicate that even under conservative yield assumptions, global grain supplies should at least continue to keep pace with the growth of demand over the next twenty years. This is despite an expected increase of about 1.8b in the world's population. The study predicts that grain production per person will increase by about 10% to the year 2016. Despite this expected improvement in the global situation, poverty and food insecurity will continue to be major problems in parts of the developing world, and especially in sub-Saharan Africa. This region has the highest project population growth and the lowest rates of income growth per person. The report also forecasts a doubling of world grain trade over the next twenty years drivern largely by growing demand in East Asia, and especially China. Trade as a proportion of world production will increase from around 10% at present to 14% by 2016. This growth in global grain trade underlines the important role of trade in promoting food security. According to the report, global free trade in grains would generate economic gains of the order of US$20b. Much of these gain would flow to those countries with highly protected agricultural sectors. But developing export countries would also gain from higher prices and greater export opportunities |
| Analysis |
Agricultural productivity |
|
Commodity marketing |
|
Developing countries |
|
Economic growth |
|
Economic models |
|
Food supply |
|
Global data |
|
Grain industry |
|
Overseas item |
|
Population growth |
|
Poverty |
|
Prices |
|
Prices and charges |
|
Trade liberalisation |
|
Trends to 2020 |
| Notes |
"Commissioned by the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade" |
| Bibliography |
Bibliography: pages 99-102 |
| Subject |
Commercial policy.
|
|
Food industry and trade.
|
|
Food supply -- Forecasting.
|
|
Food supply.
|
|
Free trade.
|
|
Grain trade.
|
| Author |
Australia. Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade.
|
| ISBN |
0642259356 |
|
