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Author Romeu, Rafael, 1975- author

Title Recession and policy transmission to Latin American tourism : does expanded travel to Cuba offset crisis spillovers? / Rafel Romeu and Andy Wolfe
Published [Washington, D.C.] : International Monetary Fund, [2011]
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Description 1 online resource (33 pages) : color illustrations
Series IMF working paper ; WP/11/32
IMF working paper ; WP/11/32
Contents Cover Page; Title Page; Copyright Page; Contents; I. Introduction; II. An Analytical Framework; III. Data; Table 1. Arrivals by Selected Regions and OECD Groups; Table 2. OECD Groupings by Labor Market Characteristics; Figure 1. U.S. Unemployment and Tourist Arrivals by Caribbean Country Groups; Figure 2. OECD Unemployment Grouped by Labor Market Characteristics; Figure 3. Tests for Unit Roots in Tourist Arrivals; Figure 4. OECD Real Wage Changes Against Hotel Price Inflation, 2009; IV. Empirical Results; Table 3. OLS Regressions of Tourism Arrivals on OECD Unemployment
Table 4. Estimates of the Determinants of Tourist ArrivalsTable 5. Model Fit of Tourist Arrivals; Table 6. Estimates of the Consumer Elasticity of Substitution; V. The Role of Changing U.S. Travel Costs to Cuba; Figure 5. Arrivals from U.S. and Close Relatives to Cuba, 1990-2009; Figure 6. Arrivals from Cubans Abroad and the Rest of the World, 2005-09; Figure 7. Income Per-Capita of OECD Countries and Cubans; Figure 8. Revenue per Tourist, Cuba and Dominican Republic; Figure 9. Customs Revenue Schedule, Selected Caribbean Countries; Table 7. Consular Fees for Selected LAC Countries
VI. ConclusionsAppendix I; References; Footnotes
Summary This study measures the impact of changing economic conditions in OECD countries on tourist arrivals to countries/destinations in Latin America and the Caribbean. A model of utility maximization across labor, consumption of goods and services at home, and consumption of tourism services across monopolistically competitive destinations abroad is presented. The model yields estimable equations arrivals as a function of OECD economic conditions and the elasticity of substitution across tourist destinations. Estimates suggest median tourism arrivals decline by at least three to five percent in response to a one percent increase in OECD unemployment, even after controlling for declines in OECD consumption and output gaps. Arrivals to individual destination are driven by differing exposure to OECD country groups sharing similar business cycle characteristics. Estimates of the elasticity of substitution suggest that tourism demand is highly price sensitive, and that a variety of costs to delivering tourism services drive market share losses in uncompetitive destinations. One recent cost change, the 2009 easing of restrictions on U.S. travel to Cuba, supported a small (countercyclical) boost to Cubas arrivals of U.S. non-family travel, as well as a pre-existing surge in family travel (of Cuban origin). Despite the US becoming Cubas second highest arrival source, Cuban policymakers have significant scope for lowering the relatively high costs of family travel from the United States
Notes "February 2011."
At head of title: Western Hemisphere Department
Title from PDF title page (IMF Web site, viewed June 10, 2011)
Bibliography Includes bibliographical references
Subject Americans -- Travel -- Latin America -- Econometric models.
Business cycles -- Latin America -- Econometric models.
Cuban Americans -- Travel -- Latin America -- Econometric models.
Europeans -- Travel -- Latin America -- Econometric models.
Global Financial Crisis, 2008-2009.
Tourism -- Latin America -- Econometric models.
Tourists -- OECD countries -- Econometric models.
Travel costs -- Cuba -- Econometric models.
Form Electronic book
Author Wolfe, Andrew M., author
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Department, issuing body
ISBN 1283565846
1455217670 (e-book)
1455217689 (Trade Paper)
9781455217670 (e-book)
9781455217687 (Trade Paper)