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Book Cover
Author Llaudes, Ricardo, author

Title Impact of the great recession on emerging markets / prepared by Ricardo Llaudes, Ferhan Salman, and Mali Chivakul
Published [Washington, D.C.] : International Monetary Fund, [2010]
Online access available from:
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Description 1 online resource (34 pages) : color illustrations
Series IMF working paper ; WP/10/237
IMF working paper ; WP/10/237
Contents Cover Page; Title Page; Copyright Page; Contents; I. Introduction; 1. Pre-crisis external vulnerabilities; II. A Broad View of the Impact of the Crisis; 1a. Impact of the crisis; 1b. Correlations -- Real and financial variables; 2. Median stock market indices; 3. Capital flows to emerging markets; 4. Impact of the crisis on output; 5. Financial and corporate vulnerabilities; III. Econometric Analysis; A. Measuring impact: Alternative metrics; 6. Alternative growth metrics; B. Impact on growth; 2a. Regressions for percent change in real output between peak and trough (growth_3)
13. Impact of crisis: Country variability in outcomesIV. Conclusions; Box 1. Assessments of Underlying Vulnerabilities in Emerging Market Countries; Appendix 1. Country sample; Appendix 2. List of variables; Appendix 3. Reserve Robustness with Alternative Control Variables; References; Footnotes
2b. Regressions for percent change in real output between peak and trough (growth_4)C. The role of reserves; 7. Reserve coverage and output collapse; 8. Initial reserves and reserve use; 3. Dependent variable: Real output peak to trough (growth_3); 9. Fall in reserves (peak to trough, percent of 2008 GDP); D. Impact on sovereign spreads; 4. Determinants of the change in spreads from trough to peak (in percent); E. Impact on credit; 10. Credit developments; 5. Determinants of peak-to-trough real credit growth; 11. Deleveraging; 12. Banks' probability of default; F. Further issues
Summary This paper examines the impact of the recent global crisis on emerging market economies (EMs). Our cross-country analysis shows that the impact of the crisis was more pronounced in those EMs that had initial weaker fundamentals and greater financial and trade linkages. This effect is observed along a number of dimensions, such as growth, stock market performance, sovereign spreads, and credit growth. This paper also shows that during this crisis, pre-crisis reserve holdings helped to mitigate the initial growth collapse. This finding contrasts with other studies that fail to find a significant relationship between reserves and the growth decline. This paper argues that our preferred measure of impact is a more accurate reflection of the true impact of the crisis on EMs
Bibliography Includes bibliographical references
Notes Print version record
Subject Global Financial Crisis, 2008-2009.
Globalization -- Economic aspects.
Form Electronic book
Author Chivakul, Mali, author
Salman, Ferhan, author
International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, and Review Department, issuing body
ISBN 1283565439