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Book Cover
Author Epstein, Natan P., author

Title Estimating Poland's potential output : a production function approach / prepared by Natan Epstein and Corrado Macchiarelli
Published [Washington, D.C.] : International Monetary Fund, [2010]
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Description 1 online resource (21 pages) : illustrations (some color)
Series IMF working paper ; WP/10/15
IMF working paper ; WP/10/15
Contents I. Introduction; II. The Production Function and Parameter Estimates; Tables; 1. ADF Test Statistics For Variables' Stationarity; 2. Johansen's Cointegration Test; 3. Static and Dynamic Least Squares Estimation; Figures; 1. Recursive Estimates of Cobb-Douglas Coefficients; III. Estimating Potential Inputs; A. First step: Kalman Decomposition of Unemployment; 4. Cyclical Component and Phillips Curve Estimates; B. Second Step: Economic Identification-Philips Curve; C. NAIRU Estimates; D. Potential Employment; 5. Trend and Cyclical Componentes of Unemployment; Boxes
1. Time-Invariant NAIRU2. Actual, Equilibrium, and Trend Component of Employment; 3. Unemployment Gap (Phillips Curve Estimation); 4. Year-on-Year Inflation versus NAIRU Estimates; 5. Observed and Potential labor Market Participation Rate; 6. Actual and Equilibrium Employment Level; IV. Potential Output Estimates; 7. Production Function Estimates; 2. Contribution to Potential Growth; V. Conclusion; References; Appendix-Data Sources
Summary The paper develops a methodology based on the production-function approach to estimate potential output of the Polish economy. The paper concentrates on obtaining a robust estimate of the labor input by deriving Poland's natural rate of unemployment. The estimated unemployment gap is found to track well pressures on resource constraints. Moreover, the overall results show that, prior to the recent global financial crisis, Poland's output and employment were both growing above potential. The production function is also used to derive medium-term projections of the output gap. According to our methodology, in the aftermath of the global crisis, Poland is not expected to experience a sizable and persistent negative output gap
Notes 'January 2010."
At head of title: European Department
Bibliography Includes bibliographical references (pages 17-19)
Notes Master and use copy. Digital master created according to Benchmark for Faithful Digital Reproductions of Monographs and Serials, Version 1. Digital Library Federation, December 2002. MiAaHDL
digitized 2011 HathiTrust Digital Library committed to preserve pda MiAaHDL
Print version record
Subject Industrial productivity -- Poland -- Econometric models.
Input-output analysis -- Poland -- Econometric models.
Unemployment -- Poland -- Econometric models.
Form Electronic book
Author Macchiarelli, Corrado, author
International Monetary Fund. European Department, issuing body
ISBN 128355237X
145191864X (E-Book)