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Title The end of an era? : the medium- and long-term effects of the global crisis on growth in low-income countries / prepared by Andrew Berg [and others]
Published [Washington, D.C.] : International Monetary Fund, [2010]
©2010
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Description 1 online resource (29 pages) : color illustrations
Series IMF working paper, 2227-8885 ; WP/10/205
IMF working paper ; WP/10/205
Contents Cover Page; Title Page; Copyright Page; Contents; I. Introduction; II. Past and Current Global Shocks; Figure 1. GDP per Capita, TOT and ED Growth in Past and Current Crises; III. Growth in the Medium-Term: An Impulse-Response Analysis; Figure 2a. Impulse Response of Output Loss in LICs to TOT and ED Shocks; Figure 2b. Impulse Response of Output Loss in SSA to TOT and ED Shocks; Figure 3. Post-crisis Growth Relative to Pre-crisis Trend; IV. Growth in the Medium-Term: Panel Regression Analysis; Table 1. Panel GMM Growth Regressions
Appendix II. List of Down-breaks Episodes in our SampleReferences; Footnotes
Figure 4a. Initial Conditions and Post-crisis Medium-term GrowthFigure 4b. Initial Conditions and Post-crisis Medium-term Growth; Table 2. Panel GMM Growth Regressions with Interactions; V. Growth in the Longer-Run: Growth Down-Breaks Analysis; Figure 5a. GDP Growth Decelerations and TOT Shocks; Figure 5b. GDP Growth Decelerations and ED Shocks; Figure 6. TOT vs. ED around Periods of Growth Decelerations in LICs; Figure 7. TOT vs. ED around Periods of Growth Decelerations in SSA; VI. Conclusions; Appendix I. List of Countries and Subsamples used in the Quantitative Analysis
Summary This paper investigates the medium- and long-term growth effects of the global financial crises on Low-Income Countries (LICs). Using several methodological approaches, including impulse response function analysis, growth spells techniques and panel regressions, we show that external demand (ED) shocks are not historically associated with sharp declines in output growth. Given existing evidence that LICs were primarily impacted by such a shock in the global financial crisis, our analysis provides some optimism on the chances that LICs will avoid a protracted period of slow growth. However, we also show that there seem to be persistent output losses associated with ED shocks in the medium-run. In terms of policy implications, our analysis provides evidence that countries with lower deficits, lower debt, more flexible exchange rate regimes, and a higher stock of international reserves are more likely to dampen the effects of an ED shock on growth
Bibliography Includes bibliographical references
Notes Print version record
Subject Economic development -- Developing countries.
Financial crises -- Developing countries.
Global Financial Crisis, 2008-2009.
Developing countries -- Economic conditions.
Form Electronic book
Author Berg, Andrew, author
International Monetary Fund. Research Department, issuing body
International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, and Review Department, issuing body
ISBN 1282847481
145520448X
145523544X
9781282847484
9781455204489
9781455235445