The Indus Basin of Pakistan : the impacts of climate risks on water and agriculture / Winston Yu, Yi-Chen Yang, Andre Savitsky, Donald Alford, Casey Brown, James Wescoat, Dario Debowicz, and Sherman Robinson
Machine generated contents note: Study Objective -- Policies and Plans -- Upper Indus Basin Hydrology and Glaciers -- Future Climate Scenarios -- Modeling Water, Climate, Food, and the Economy -- Climate Risk Scenarios -- Adaptation Investment Scenarios -- Conclusions -- Note -- References -- Background and Problem Statement -- Difficult Years for the Indus Basin: 2009-11 -- Study Approach: A Framework for Integrated Water and Agriculture Assessment -- Note -- References -- Key Messages -- Limited Water Storage -- Problematic Trends in Surface Water and Groundwater Usage -- Inflexible and Uncertain Water Allocation Institutions -- Low Water-Use Efficiencies and Productivity -- National Policies and Plans on Water and Agriculture -- Notes -- References -- Key Messages -- Indus River -- Hydrology of the Upper Indus Basin -- Glacier Climates of the Upper Indus Basin -- Distributed Process Models of Glaciers and Total Basin Runoff -- Climate and Stream Flow Variability in the Upper Indus Basin -- Note -- References -- Key Messages -- Overview of Historical Patterns and Trends -- Future Climate Change Risks -- Future Climate in the Indus Basin Irrigation System -- Future Climate in the Upper Indus Basin -- Notes -- References -- Section 1: Indus Basin Model Revised (IBMR-2012) -- Economic Objective -- Water Balance -- Input Data, Equations, Constraints, and Output Data -- Baseline: Year 2008/09 -- Section 2: Computable General Equilibrium Model -- CGE Model Structure -- Social Accounting Matrix for Pakistan -- Integration of the Two Models -- Model Limitations -- Notes -- References -- Key Messages -- Sensitivities of Hydrologic Parameters and the DIVACRD Constraint -- Future Climate Risk Scenarios -- Adaptation Investment Scenario Analyses -- Environmental Issues -- References -- Key Messages -- Final Thoughts -- Description of 12 Agro-Climatic Zones -- Model Structure Change: The Lateral Groundwater Flow in IBMR -- Model Structure Change: The Refined Sugar and Sugar Cane Issue -- Model Structure Change: Removed Variables and Equations in IBMR 2008 -- Data Updating -- IBMR Model Diagnosis -- References
Summary
This book was undertaken at a pivotal time in the region. The weak summer monsoon in 2009 created drought conditions throughout Pakistan. This followed an already tenuous situation for many rural households faced with high fuel and fertilizer costs and the impacts of rising global food prices. Then catastrophic monsoon flooding in 2010 affected over 20 million people, devastating their housing, infrastructure, and crops. Damages from this single flood event were estimated at US10 billion, half of which were losses in the agriculture sector. Notwithstanding the debate as to whether these obser
