| Description |
1 online resource (xv, 623 pages) : illustrations |
| Contents |
The emergence of decision analysis / Ralph F. Miles, Jr. -- The foundations of decision analysis revisited / Ronald A. Howard -- Decision analysis : a personal account of how it got started and evolved / Howard Raiffa -- Reflections on the contributions of Ward Edwards to decision analysis and behavioral research / Lawrence D. Phillips, Detlof von Winterfeldt -- Defining a decision analytic structure / Detlof von Winterfeldt, Ward Edwards -- Developing objectives and attributes / Ralph L. Keeney -- Eliciting probabilities from experts / Stephen C. Hora -- Aggregating probability distributions / Robert T. Clemen, Robert L. Winkler -- Model building with belief networks and influence diagrams / Ross D. Shachter -- A Bayesian approach to learning causal networks / David Heckerman -- Utility and risk preferences / David E. Bell -- Practical value models / Ralph L. Keeney, Detlof von Winterfeldt -- Extensions of the subjective expected utility model / Robert F. Nau -- Probabilistic risk analysis for engineered systems / Vicki M. Bier, Louis Anthony Cox, Jr. -- The engineering risk-analysis method and some applications / M. Elisabeth Paté-Cornell -- Health risk analysis for risk-management decision-making / Louis Anthony Cox, Jr. -- What have we learned from our mistakes? / Barbara Mellers, Connson Locke -- Decision conferencing / Lawrence D. Phillips -- Resource allocation decisions / Don N. Kleinmuntz -- From decision analysis to the decision organization / David Matheson, James E. Matheson -- Building decision competency in organizations / Carl S. Spetzler -- Negotiation analysis : between decisions and games / James K. Sebenius -- The adoption of multiattribute utility theory for the evaluation of plutonium disposition options in the United States and Russia / John C. Butler, Alexander N. Chebeskov, James S. Dyer, Thomas A. Edmunds, Jianmin Jia, Vladimir I. Oussanov -- Choosing a tritium supply technology for nuclear weapons : reflections on a controversial decision analysis / Detlof von Winterfeldt -- Applications of decision analysis to the military systems acquisition process / Dennis M. Buede, Terry A. Bresnick -- Balancing environmental and operational objectives in nuclear refueling strategies / Phillip C. Becc |
| Summary |
Decision analysis is a prescriptive theory that aids individuals or groups confronted with complex problems in a wide variety of contexts. By framing issues, identifying risks, eliciting stakeholder preferences, and suggesting alternative approaches, decision analysts can offer workable solutions in domains such as the environment, health and medicine, engineering and operations research, and public policy. This book is a mixture of historical and forward-looking essays on key topics in decision analysis. Part I covers the history and foundations of decision analysis. Part II discusses structuring decision problems, including the development of objectives and their attributes, and influence diagrams. Part III discusses probabilities and their elicitation and Bayes nets. Part IV discusses additive and multiplicative utilities, risk preferences, and 'option pricing' methods. Part V discusses risk analysis. Part VI puts decision analysis in a behavioral and organizational context. Part VII presents case studies of applications |
| Bibliography |
Includes bibliographical references and index |
| Notes |
Print version record |
| Subject |
Decision making.
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Decision making -- Mathematical models.
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Decision support systems.
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Search theory.
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Decision Making
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Decision Support Systems, Management
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Decision Theory
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Decision Support Techniques
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decision making.
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SELF-HELP -- Motivational & Inspirational.
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Search theory
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Decision support systems
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Decision making -- Mathematical models
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Decision making
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Entscheidungstheorie
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Besliskunde.
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Entscheidung.
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Entscheidungsfindung.
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Entscheidungstheorie.
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| Form |
Electronic book
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| Author |
Edwards, Ward, 1927-2005.
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Miles, Ralph F., 1933-
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Von Winterfeldt, Detlof.
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| ISBN |
9780511342776 |
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0511342772 |
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9780511341144 |
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0511341148 |
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9780511611308 |
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0511611307 |
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9780511342240 |
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0511342241 |
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9786611085353 |
|
6611085351 |
|
9780511341724 |
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0511341725 |
|
1281085359 |
|
9781281085351 |
|
