| Description |
1 online resource (47 pages) |
| Series |
IMF working paper, 1018-5941 ; WP/219 |
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IMF working paper ; WP/12/219.
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| Contents |
Cover; Contents; I. Introduction; Figures; 1. Personal Saving Rate in 2007-2011 and Previous Recessions; II. Theory: Target Wealth and Credit Conditions; 2. Consumption Function (Stable Arm of Phase Diagram); 3. A Wealth Shock; 4. Relaxation of a Natural Borrowing Constraint from 0 to h; 5. Dynamics of the Saving Rate after an Increase in Unemployment Risk; III. Data and Measurement Issues; 6. Net Worth-Disposable Income Ratio; 7. The Credit Easing Accumulated (CEA) Index; 8. Unemployment Risk E[sub(t)]u[sub(t+4)] and Unemployment Rate (Percent); IV. Reduced-Form Saving Regressions |
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13. Fit of the Structural Model-Actual and Fitted PSR (Percent of Disposable Income)14. Decomposition of Fitted PSR (Percent of Disposable Income); VI. Conclusions; 15. Alternative Measures of Credit Availability; 16. Growth of Real Disposable Income (Percent); 17. Personal Saving Rate (Percent of Disposable Income); Tables; 1. Preliminary Saving Regressions and the Time Trend; 2. Additional Saving Regressions I.-Robustness to Explanatory Variables; 3. Additional Saving Regressions II.-Sub-sample Stability; 4. Personal Saving Rate-Actual and Explained Change, 2007-2010 |
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5. Calibration and Structural Estimates6. Preliminary Saving Regressions and the Time Trend-Saving Rate Generated by the Structural Model; 7. Univariate Properties of Disposable Income and Personal Saving Rate; 8. Campbell (1987) Saving for a Rainy Day Regressions; References |
| Summary |
We argue that the U.S. personal saving rate's long stability (from the 1960s through the early 1980s), subsequent steady decline (1980s - 2007), and recent substantial increase (2008 - 2011) can all be interpreted using a parsimonious 'buffer stock' model of optimal consumption in the presence of labor income uncertainty and credit constraints. Saving in the model is affected by the gap between 'target' and actual wealth, with the target wealth determined by credit conditions and uncertainty. An estimated structural version of the model suggests that increased credit availability accounts for most of the saving rate's long-term decline, while fluctuations in net wealth and uncertainty capture the bulk of the business-cycle variation |
| Notes |
Title from PDF title page (IMF Web site, viewed September 5, 2012) |
| Bibliography |
Includes bibliographical references |
| Notes |
"Western Hemisphere Department." |
|
"September 2012." |
| Subject |
Saving and investment -- United States -- Econometric models
|
|
Saving and investment -- Econometric models
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United States
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| Form |
Electronic book
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| Author |
Slacalek, Jiri, 1975- author.
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Sommer, Martin, author.
|
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International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Department.
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| ISBN |
1475505698 |
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9781475505696 |
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1475513666 |
|
9781475513660 |
|
9781475594348 |
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1475594348 |
|
