Title Global economic prospects. June 2022 / a product of the Prospects Group in the Equitable Growth, Finance and Institutions (EFI) Vice Presidency

Published Washington, DC : World Bank Group, [2022] ©2022

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Description 1 online resource (xix, 150 pages) : color illustrations Series A World Bank Group flagship report World Bank Group flagship report. Contents Cover -- Half Title -- Title Page -- Copyright Page -- Summary of Contents -- Contents -- Acknowledgments -- Foreword -- Executive Summary -- Abbreviations -- Chapter 1 Global Outlook -- Summary -- Global Context -- Global Trade -- Commodity Markets -- Global Inflation -- Financial Developments -- Major Economies: Recent Developments and Outlook -- Advanced Economies -- China -- Emerging Market and Developing Economies -- Recent Developments -- Outlook -- Global outlook and risks -- Global Outlook -- Risks to The Outlook -- Growth Under Alternative Downside Scenarios -- Policy Challenges Key Global Challenges -- Challenges in Advanced Economies -- Challenges in Emerging Market and Developing Economies -- References -- Special Focus 1 Global Stagflation -- Introduction -- Evolution of Inflation -- Evolution of Growth -- Echoes of The Stagflation of The 1970s? -- Similarities to The 1970s -- Differences from The 1970s -- End of Stagflation of The 1970s and Lessons for today -- Aftermath of High Inflation in The 1970s -- Implications for The 2020s -- Structural Forces of Disinflation -- Challenges for EMDEs -- Policy Options for EMDEs Annex SF1.1 Methodology: Decomposing Inflation -- Annex SF1.2 Methodology: Estimating Potential Growth -- References -- Special Focus 2 Russia's Invasion of Ukraine: Implications for Energy Markets and Activity -- Introduction -- Comparison With Previous Energy Shocks -- Lessons from Previous Energy Shocks -- Implications for The Global Economy -- Channels -- Impact on Global Activity -- Policy Implications -- References -- Chapter 2 Regional Outlooks -- East Asia and Pacific -- Recent Developments -- Outlook -- Risks -- Europe and Central Asia -- Recent Developments -- Outlook -- Risks Latin America and The Caribbean -- Recent Developments -- Outlook -- Risks -- Middle East and North Africa -- Recent Developments -- Outlook -- Risks -- South Asia -- Recent Developments -- Outlook -- Risks -- Sub-Saharan Africa -- Recent Developments -- Outlook -- Risks -- References -- Statistical Appendix -- Data and Forecast Conventions -- Selected Topics -- Boxes -- 1.1 Regional Perspectives: Outlook and Risks -- 1.2 Recent Developments and Outlook for Low-Income Countries -- Figures -- 1.1 Global Prospects -- 1.2 Global Risks and Policy Challenges -- 1.3 Global Trade 1.4 Commodity Markets -- 1.5 Global Inflation and Financial Developments -- 1.6 Major Economies: Recent Developments and Outlook -- 1.7 Recent Developments in Emerging Market and Developing Economies -- B 1.1.1 Regional Outlook -- B1.1.2 Regional Risks -- 1.8 Outlook in Emerging Market and Developing Economies -- 1.9 Per Capita Income in Emerging Market and Developing Economies -- 1.10 Global Outlook -- B1.2.1 LICs: Recent Developments -- B1.2.2 LICs: Outlook and Risks -- 1.11 Intensifying Geopolitical Tensions -- 1.12 Stagflation Summary The world economy continues to suffer from a series of destabilizing shocks. After more than two years of pandemic, Russia's invasion of Ukraine and its global effects on commodity markets, supply chains, inflation, and financial conditions have steepened the slowdown in global growth. In particular, the war is leading to soaring prices and volatility in energy markets, with improvements in activity in energy exporters more than offset by headwinds to activity in most other economies. The war has also led to a significant increase in agricultural commodity prices, which is exacerbating food insecurity and extreme poverty in many emerging market and developing economies. Numerous risks could further derail what is now a precarious recovery. Among them is, in particular, the possibility of stubbornly high global inflation accompanied by tepid growth, reminiscent of the stagflation of the 1970s. This could eventually result in a sharp tightening of monetary policy in advanced economies to rein in inflation, lead to surging borrowing costs, and possibly culminate in financial stress in some emerging market and developing economies. A forceful and wide-ranging policy response is required by policy makers and the global community to boost growth, bolster macroeconomic frameworks, reduce financial vulnerabilities, provide support to the vulnerable population groups, and attenuate the long-term impacts of the global shocks of recent years Notes "The project was managed by M. Ayhan Kose and Franziska Ohnsorge, under the general guidance of Indermit Gill."--Acknowledgments ISSN: 1564-7021 Bibliography Includes bibliographical references In Online access: World Bank World Bank Open Knowledge Repository Subject Economic forecasting -- Developing countries Economic forecasting. Economic history -- 1990- International economic relations. Economic policy. Russo-Ukrainian War, 2014- -- Economic aspects Economic forecasting Economic history Economic policy Economics International economic relations SUBJECT Developing countries -- Economic conditions. http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh85037344 Subject Developing countries Form Electronic book Author World Bank Group. Equitable Growth, Finance and Institutions Global Practice Group, issuing body. ISBN 9781464818448 1464818444

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