| Description |
1 online resource (29 pages) : illustrations |
| Series |
IMF working paper ; WP/07/187 |
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IMF working paper ; WP/07/187.
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| Contents |
I. Introduction; II. Evolution of Age-Related Expenditures; Figures; 1. Projected Cumulative Growth in Old-Age Population and Increase in Age-Related Spending Relative to 2005; III. Evaluating Changes in Fiscal Sustainability; A. Indicators for Assessing Fiscal Sustainability; 2. Closing the Primary Gap: Gross Debt Dynamics, 2005-2080; B. Data; Tables; 1. Fiscal Positions as of 2005; C. Estimation Results: Primary Gaps; 2. Estimation Results: Primary Gaps in 2005; 3. Rolling Estimates of the Intertemporal Primary Gap, 2001-05 |
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3. Estimated Fiscal Impact of Recent Pension and Health Care ReformsD. Robustness; 4. Debt-Target Primary Gap for Alternative Target Years: 60 Percent Debt-to-GDP Ratio Target; 5. Impact of Changing the Debt Target on Debt-Target Primary Gap; 6. Impact of Higher Aging Costs on Intertemporal Primary Gap; IV. Delayed Versus Immediate Fiscal Adjustment: Macroeconomic Effects; 7. Effect on Intertemporal Primary Gap of Reducing the Growth-Adjusted Interest Rate by 1 Percentage Point; 4. Public Debt, Restoring Sustainability Immediately and with a Delay |
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5. Primary Fiscal Balance: Restoring Sustainability Immediately and with a Delay6. Real GDP: Restoring Sustainability Immediately and with a Delay; V. Conclusion; Appendices; 1. Sustainability Indicators; Appendix Tables; 8. Stylized Example of How to Calculate the Primary Gaps; 7. Debt Dynamics and Aging Costs in the Stylized Example; 2. The Global Fiscal Model; References |
| Summary |
Rising longevity, falling fertility rates, and the retirement of the baby boom generation will substantially raise age-related government spending in most advanced and many emerging market countries. This paper assesses the evolution of fiscal sustainability for each of the G-7 countries using two standard primary gap indicators. The estimated fiscal adjustment required to ensure long-run fiscal sustainability is substantial for all G-7 countries. In particular, ensuring fiscal sustainability would require an average improvement in the primary balance of about 4 percentage points of GDP. While the overall adjustment required to achieve long-run fiscal sustainability in G-7 countries is large, there are significant growth benefits to putting public finances on a sustainable footing in the near term versus delayed adjustment |
| Bibliography |
Includes bibliographical references (pages 27-29) |
| Notes |
Master and use copy. Digital master created according to Benchmark for Faithful Digital Reproductions of Monographs and Serials, Version 1. Digital Library Federation, December 2002. http://purl.oclc.org/DLF/benchrepro0212 MiAaHDL |
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digitized 2010 HathiTrust Digital Library committed to preserve pda MiAaHDL |
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Print version record |
| Subject |
Fiscal policy -- Group of Seven countries
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Population aging -- Economic aspects -- Group of Seven countries
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Fiscal policy
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Group of Seven countries
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| Form |
Electronic book
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| Author |
Leigh, Daniel, author
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Skaarup, Michael, author.
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International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Department.
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| ISBN |
1283513935 |
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9781283513937 |
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