| Description |
1 online resource (215 p.) |
| Series |
Springer Polar Sciences Ser |
|
Springer Polar Sciences Ser
|
| Contents |
Intro -- Foreword -- Preface -- Acknowledgments -- Praise for The Future of Antarctica -- Contents -- About the Authors -- Abbreviations -- List of Figures -- List of Tables -- 1 Introduction -- 1.1 The Antarctic Treaty System: Responsive, Resilient-And Largely Successful -- 1.2 The Antarctic Treaty System: Fears for the Future? -- 1.3 Antarctic Futures and Scenarios -- 1.4 Antarctic Futures: A Multi-disciplinary Approach -- 1.5 Classical and Critical Geopolitics -- 1.6 Towards a Critical Realist Geopolitics? -- 1.7 What This Book is About -- References |
|
2 History of Antarctic Territorial Claims and Spatial Contestation -- 2.1 Introduction -- 2.2 The 'Antarctic Problem' -- 2.3 Geopolitics and Resolving the 'Antarctic Problem' -- 2.4 The Antarctic Treaty: Setting Aside Geopolitical Differences? -- 2.5 Geopolitics and the Future of Antarctica -- References -- 3 Scenario Analysis and the Limits of Prediction -- 3.1 Overview -- 3.2 What Are Scenarios? -- 3.3 Ten Key Properties of Scenarios -- 3.4 Reality Check: Scenarios and Our Need to Predict -- 3.5 Plausibility and the 'aha' Moment -- 3.6 A Revised Model: Introducing the Zone of Plausibility |
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3.7 Dissecting Turbulence, Uncertainty, Novelty and Ambiguity (TUNA) -- 3.8 Summary -- References -- 4 Objectives, Approaches and Techniques -- 4.1 Introduction -- 4.2 Objectives, Approaches, and Techniques -- 4.3 Framing Before Reframing -- 4.4 Level 1-Define Your Strategic Objectives -- 4.5 Level 2-Identify Your General Approach/es -- 4.6 A Scenario Toolbox -- 4.7 Deductive Approaches: Intuitive, Archetypal, and Normative -- 4.8 Deductive (Intuitive) Approaches -- 4.9 Deductive (Archetype) Approaches -- 4.10 Deductive (Normative) Approaches -- 4.11 Inductive Approaches |
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4.12 Quantitative approaches -- 4.13 Hybrid approaches -- 4.14 Integrated approaches -- 4.15 Scoping approaches -- 4.16 Engagement approaches -- 4.17 Level 3-Select Your Specific Technique/s -- 4.18 The 'Intuitive Logics 2 × 2' Technique -- 4.18.1 Step 1: Identify Your Scenario Standpoint -- 4.18.2 Step 2: Set Your Time Horizon -- 4.18.3 Step 3: Identify the Key Driving Forces -- 4.18.4 Step 4: Distinguish Critical Uncertainties from Predetermined Elements -- 4.18.5 Step 5: Rank Critical Uncertainties by Importance and Uncertainty -- 4.18.6 Step 6: Select Your General Approach/es |
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4.18.7 Step 7: Construct the Scenario Matrix -- 4.18.8 Step 8: Develop the Scenario Narratives -- 4.18.9 Step 9: 'Wind Tunnel Test' Current Strategy and Prepare Policy Advice -- 4.19 Insights from the Process and Adding Depth: An Alternative to IL 2 × 2-Towards 'IL 5' -- 4.20 Summary -- References -- 5 Antarctic Geopolitics: Background -- 5.1 Overview -- 5.2 A Brief Recap: Geopolitics-Classical, Critical, and Other Approaches -- 5.3 Antarctica and Classical Geopolitical Analysis -- 5.4 Nine Themes for the Driving Forces of Antarctic Geopolitics -- 5.5 Challenges for the Scenario Planner! |
| Notes |
Description based upon print version of record |
|
5.6 Four Dynamics of Driving Forces |
| Subject |
Geopolitics -- Antarctica
|
|
Geopolitics -- History
|
|
Geopolitics
|
|
Antarctica
|
| Genre/Form |
History
|
| Form |
Electronic book
|
| Author |
Edmiston, David
|
|
Haward, Marcus
|
| ISBN |
9789811670954 |
|
9811670951 |
|
