Title On the sources of oil price fluctuations / prepared by Deren Unalmis, Ibrahim Unalmis, and D. Filiz Unsal

Published [Washington, D.C.] : International Monetary Fund, ©2009

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Description 1 online resource (28 pages) : illustrations Series IMF working paper, 2227-8885 ; WP/09/285 IMF working paper ; WP/09/285. Contents Cover Page; Title Page; Copyright Page; Contents; I. Introduction; II. The Small Open Economy Model; 1. Model in Log-Linearized Form: Behavioral Equations for SOE; A. Households; B. Firms; C. Monetary and Fiscal Policy; D. Equilibrium; III. Rest of the World and the Oil Market; A. Equilibrium in the Rest of the World; 2. Model in Log-Linearized Form: Behavioral Equations for the ROW and the Oil Market; 3. Model in Log-Linearized Form: Parameters; 4. Model in Log-Linearized Form: Exogenous Processes; B. Oil Market Equilibrium; IV. Impulse Response Analysis 5. Parameters Values Used in CalibrationA. Aggregate Demand Shocks; B. Oil Supply Shock; C. Precautionary Demand Shock; V. Conclusions; Appendix: Equilibrium Conditions; A. Households and Goods Market Equilibrium in SOE; B. Marginal Cost and Inflation Dynamics; C. Rest of the World and Oil Market Equilibrium; 1. Impulse Responses to 1 Percent Labor Productivity Shock; 2. Impulse Responses to 1 Percent Government Spending Shock; 3. Impulse Responses to 10 Percent Negative Oil Supply Shock; 4. Impulse Responses to 10 Percent Expected Negative Oil Supply Shock; References; Footnotes Summary Analyzing macroeconomic impacts of oil price changes requires first to investigate different sources of these changes and their distinct effects. Kilian (2009) analyzes the effects of an oil supply shock, an aggregate demand shock, and a precautionary oil demand shock. The paper's aim is to model macroeconomic consequences of these shocks within a new Keynesian DSGE framework. It models a small open economy and the rest of the world together to discover both accompanying effects of oil price changes and their international transmission mechanisms. Our results indicate that different sources of oil price fluctuations bring remarkably diverse outcomes for both economies Bibliography Includes bibliographical references Notes Master and use copy. Digital master created according to Benchmark for Faithful Digital Reproductions of Monographs and Serials, Version 1. Digital Library Federation, December 2002. http://purl.oclc.org/DLF/benchrepro0212 MiAaHDL English Print version record digitized 2011 HathiTrust Digital Library committed to preserve pda MiAaHDL Subject Petroleum products -- Prices -- Econometric models Petroleum industry and trade -- Supply and demand -- Econometric models Monetary policy -- Econometric models Inflation (Finance) -- Econometric models Petroleum products -- Prices -- Econometric models Inflation (Finance) -- Econometric models Monetary policy -- Econometric models Form Electronic book Author Unalmis, Ibrahim, author. Unsal, D. Filiz, author. International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Department. ISBN 9781452740973 1452740976 1451918461 9781451918465 1462324479 9781462324477 1451874308 9781451874303 1282844725 9781282844728 9786612844720 6612844728 ISSN 2227-8885

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